Category Archives: Trump 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Weld 2020

Trump’s odds see slight increase and reach another new high after release of redacted Mueller report; Buttigieg and Sanders remain hottest names, coming at the expense of Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke; Bill Weld makes his primary challenge of Trump official

There was very little impact to Donald Trump’s odds from the release of the redacted Mueller report, as they moved from 2.23X to 2.20X. This did set a new high for the second straight week.

The two hottest names on the Democratic side remained Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg.

Pete Buttigieg’s gains seem to be coming at the expense of Beto O’Rourke. Just five weeks ago, Buttigieg was in 10th place at 40.5X, he is now at 11.1X (13.0X last week) and just overtook O’Rourke for 5th place overall. Over that same span, Beto has dropped from 8.9X to the current 13.8X. Buttigieg finally made his official entry to the field last week and has been the “surprise of the Democratic field”.

Nine weeks ago Kamala Harris was the darling of the left at 6.4X, more than twice the odds of Bernie Sanders who was at 16.3X (behind Harris, Biden, and Beto). Sanders then made it official and raised $6 million in the next 24 hours. He has continued to improve his odds at the expense of Harris. His odds rose this week from 6.89X to 6.74X. Harris dropped from 7.66X to 8.46X. This week, Sanders made the unexpected move of going to Fox for a Townhall. It became the most watched townhall of this election season.

Bill Weld finally made his challenge of Trump for the Republican nomination official. He is a long-shot to say the least. His odds are at 140.5X which puts him in 38th place overall. To give some perspective, there are 5 other Republicans with higher odds ahead of him: Mike Pence (12th place 63X), Nikki Haley (14th place 82X), Ben Shapiro (20th place 105X), John Kasich (25th place at 117X, coincidentally, he was thought of as most likely to challenge Trump and his odds dropped this week from 105X), and Mitt Romney (27th place 125X).

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Sanders 2020, Swalwell 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders reach new highs; Pete Buttigieg has a great week before official announcement; Eric Swalwell enters race with focus on gun control

Donald Trump reached a new high this past week with his odds improving from 2.35X to 2.23X. His previous high was 2.31X in August 2018. Trump’s odds have now improved for seven straight weeks. He was at 2.93X eight weeks ago. It will be interesting to see how the odds react with the reported release of the redacted Mueller report in the coming week.

Bernie Sanders, the current top Democrat in the standings, also reached a new high this week. His odds improved from 7.09X to 6.89X. He’s off to a much better start than in 2016. Here’s a numeric analysis of the difference between the two cycles for Sanders so far.

The hottest candidate remains Pete Buttigieg. Although he has not officially entered the race (will likely announce in South Bend on Sunday), one couldn’t avoid the Midwestern Mayor in the media in the past week. As Vanity Fair put it, he had “one hell of a week”.

Another week brought in another candidate for the Democrats. This week it was CA Rep Eric Swalwell. He has chosen gun control as his focus. The announcement didn’t have a big impact on his odds. He improved from 158.2X to 154.5X, which was enough to move him from 58th place to 50th place.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Pence 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s odds skyrocket after William Barr’s summary while odds of 9 out of the next 10 competitors drop with biggest drop for Pence; Buttigieg continues to be hottest name doubling his odds; Biden sees drop on allegations of inappropriate touching

Donald Trump’s odds skyrocketed a week after William Barr’s summary of the Mueller report. The President took a “victory tour” and his odds jumped from 2.75X to 2.41X. These are his best odds in 7 months. He was at 2.33X in the middle of August.

The increase came at the expense of other candidates as 9 out of the next 10 top candidates dropped including Trump’s VP Mike Pence. Pence’s odds had the biggest drop, moving from 45.2X to 58.7X, marking a new low. Pence was as high as 8.0X back at the end of 2016. He is currently in 12th place.

The only candidate in the top 10 to improve was Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg remains the hottest name in the field, having now improved in 8 straight weeks. This week his odds more than doubled moving from 40.5X to 19.0X. This was enough to move him to 6th place overall. He was in 30th place merely five weeks ago. The “millennial mayor” has become the early surprise of a crowded field.

The anticipation of Joe Biden’s candidacy over the last few weeks propelled his odds from 10.9X to 7.18X. Those odds saw a big drop this week on accusations of inappropriate touching. He is now at 7.96X dropping from 3rd place to 4th. With the accusations coming late in the week, it won’t be surprising to see a bigger drop in odds next week.

Here are the full odds:

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