Category Archives: Trump 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds flat, near all time highs; Sanders declines for 9th straight week, remains in 3rd; Buttigieg and Harris make inroads with donors, regain momentum; Klobuchar up prior to possible breakout in debates

Donald Trump’s odds remained flat to last week at 2.03X just a shade lower than his all time high of 2.02X achieved two weeks ago. His odds have been in this area the past 5 weeks and are about 2.5 times more likely than his closest competitor Joe Biden, but slightly lower than the odds of the top five Democrats combined (1.98X) That will probably be the best comparison going forward.

Bernie Sanders’ odds continued to decline this week from 10.9X to 11.7X. This was the 9th straight week of declines. He was at 6.7X at the beginning of the streak. Amazingly, he has only dropped from 2nd place to 3rd place. Sanders is one of the more polarizing figures in the race, even among Democrats, as this analysis would suggest.

Unlike the last few weeks, the biggest beneficiary from Sanders’ drop was not Elizabeth Warren (who is just slightly behind him at 12.1X). Instead the beneficiaries were Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris. Both seem to have their path to the big Democratic donors, and that will give them an advantage in the long campaign. Buttigieg was up from 13.0X to 12.4X, and has been up the last three weeks. He is at his highest odds in 8 weeks. Harris was up from 14.1X to 13.5X. It reversed a trend of dropping or being flat the last 11 weeks.

So who will be the breakout of the upcoming debate. Some think it will be Amy Klobuchar. Her odds were up on the week from 76.5X to 67.9X. That was enough to lift her from 11th place to 10th place. Ironically, she jumped ahead of Cory Booker, the other person mentioned in the article above.

Below is a list of the top 59 candidates with better than 200-1 odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Clinton 2020, Harris 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds end a 15 week win streak with slight decline; Warren continues to be hottest candidate as her odds leap over Harris and Buttigieg; Sanders not backing away from “Socialism” tag, continues to be the biggest donor to Warren’s rise; Harris’ odds at 18 months low, drops to 6th place

After 15 weeks in a row of improvements, Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline from 2.02X to 2.03X. These are still the third highest odds he has been at behind the last two weeks which were both 2.02X.

The hottest name continues to be Elizabeth Warren, and her odds saw a big leap this week. For the previous 7 weeks, Warren had seen small increases moving from 34.0X on April 20th to 20.3X last week. This week’s odds showed a much larger improvement moving to 12.3X. That allowed her to move to 6th place from 4th place. These are her highest odds since in nearly seven months (since 11/3/2018). Her recent rise has not gone unnoticed by the President and he may be shifting his attacks.

Two longtime front-runners suffered the brunt of the downside from Warren’s rise. Sanders’ odds seem to be the mirror image of Warren’s the past few weeks. that continued this week dropping from 8.97X to 10.9X. That is nearly a 20% drop in one week, and his lowest odds since middle of February. Those were the odds he achieved after initially announcing and raising $6 Million in 24 hours. Sanders has stuck to his guns in embracing the “Socialist” label as other Democrats have run away from it.

The other frontrunner that suffered this week was Kamala Harris. Her odds dropped from 12.2X to 14.1X. These are her lowest odds in over 18 months (12/2/17). She is fighting perception in Iowa that she is looking past their state.

Although this time of the year will see volatility in the top candidates, there’s always interesting “under the radar” movement in odds. This week’s include Hillary Clinton who saw her odds jump from 109X to 103X. She’s reportedly not likely to run but just will not shut the door entirely. The other interesting name who has seen a significant increase for the second week in a row is John Hickenlooper. He improved from 145X to 126X last week, and 115X this week. He is now in 18th place, and has taken strong positions against socialism as his polite twitter battle with Sanders shows.

Below is a list of the top 63 candidates with better than 200-1 odds:

For updates follow me on Twitter

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Cuban 2020, Gabbard 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Tump’s odds remain at all time high; Biden leads Trump in key states, pushing his odds to a new high; Buttigieg continue to breakout; Warren hottest name at expense of Sanders; Gabbard, Hickenlooper, Cuban see bounces

Donald Trump’s odds were flat to last week and remained at their all time high of 2.02X. The odds have now been at a new high or tied for a new high for the last 8 weeks.

After a one week decline, Joe Biden’s odds resumed their upward moves and reached another new high at 5.19X. They were at 5.61X the previous week and 5.57X two weeks ago, the all time high at that point. This as several polls show Biden would have a significant lead over Trump in head to head match-ups in key states like Michigan.

Pete Buttigieg continues to be the breakout of the election cycle. He improved on the week from 15.5X to 13.8X. He is below his all time high however reached near the end of April of 11.1X. He is currently in 5th place.

Just behind Buttigieg is the hottest recent name, Elizabeth Warren. Warren has been up for 7 straight weeks and improved this week from 21.5X to 20.3X. It’s clear that Sanders and Warren are fighting for the same voter as Sanders has been down those same 7 weeks. (Sanders has gone from 6.97X to 8.97 while Warren has gone from 32X to 20.3X)

Other names that showed life this week were Tulsi Gabbard (up from 56.3X to 53.3X, a 9 week high), John Hickenlooper (up from 145.3X to 125.6X, and from 28th place to 19th place, a 6 week high), and Mark Cuban (196.2X to 134.3X and 60th place to 23rd place). Cuban’s change is interesting as there was no recent news of him running and quite a few sites upgraded his odds from around 150X to around 70X)

Below is the list of the 65 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

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