Category Archives: Sanders 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Obama 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds continue in tight range; Bloomberg’s odds nearly double as he outspends opponents in Super Tuesday states; Warren continues to decline, gets passed by Buttigieg; Speculation by FoxNews leads to jump in Michelle Obama’s odds

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small improvement up from 2.28X to 2.27X. That is the second straight small increase. His odds have been in a range of 2.24X to 2.29X over the last 8 weeks. His odds against the top 5 Democrats ticked up a bit from 45.5% to 45.6% as their combined odds stayed flat at 1.90X.

The biggest move up was from Michael Bloomberg as he nearly double his odds from 27.7X to 14.7X. This is a brand new high for him and puts him in 6th place overall. Bloomberg’s money allows him not to have to gain momentum by winning early, delegate poor states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Instead he is focusing on outspending his opponents for Super Tuesdays.

Elizabeth Warren continued her nose dive, dropping this week from 7.32X to 9.53X. This is her lowest since the end of July. Among other things, she seems to have lost the momentum in Iowa to Pete Buttigieg. With this recent slip she was passed by Buttigieg who improved from 8.88X to 8.84X for third place overall. Her gap with Bernie Sanders has tightened. Sanders came in this week flat to last week at 10.5X.

Michelle Obama’s odds shot up as Fox News’ Tucker Carlson predicted she will be the Democratic nominee. Her odds this week were at 83X up from 123X the prior week. These are her highest odds since March and put her in 14th place overall (11th place for the Democrats)

Here are the odds for candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot and a trend of the leaders:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Patrick 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds see another small drop; Warren’s cold streak reaches 5, as Buttigieg reaches new high and Sanders rebounds to pre heart attack odds; Patrick enters while Clinton won’t rule out a run

Donald Trump’s odds continued a recent trend of slow declines. They dropped from 2.27X to 2.29X. They have either been flat or have dropped for eight straight weeks when the odds were at 2.02X. Despite the drop, Trump’s odds against the top five Democrats actually increased to 44.1% from 43.4%, as their combined odds dropped from 1.75X to 1.80X. This a result of increases in candidates outside of the top five.

Elizabeth Warren continued her cold streak of now 5 weeks. Her odds dropped from 4.89X to 5.32X. This is her lowest since the beginning of September. Her odds are still 35% higher than Biden’s, although they were more than double just 5 weeks ago.

The two big winners from Warren’s drop continue to be Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. Buttigieg improved from 11.4X to 10.3X. This is yet another high, and he has improved for seven straight weeks. He was at 31.1X at the start of the streak, and has nearly tripled his odds over that span. One poll this week showed Buttigieg to be at the top of Iowa.

Bernie Sanders improved from 12.1X to 11.2X. He has now improved the last 5 weeks (since his heart attack) from 22.1X (doubling his odds). These are his highest odds in nine weeks.

There was some big movement outside of the top 5 Democrats this week:

One week after skyrocketing, Michael Bloomberg’s odds saw a pullback, dropping from 16.1X to 23.8X. This is still way above where he was two weeks ago at 88.4X. He still has not made a decision on whether he is running, but that is likely days away according to Axios.

Hillary Clinton’s odds improved from 29.2X to 26.0X as she refuses to rule out running.

Deval Patrick made it official and announced he is running. His odds shot up from 260.7X to 112.6X, his highest in over 6 months, putting him in 15th overall, putting him just behind Klobuchar and Harris but ahead of Booker and Castro. It will be interesting to see who he hurts, if he starts gaining traction. One the one hand he is more moderate and may pull from a Buttigieg or Bloomberg. On the other hand he is well known in the northeast which may take primary votes from the likes of Warren.

Below are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as the trend of the top candidates:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trumps odds continue slow decline, still more than twice as high as next competitor; Warren’s cold streak reaches 4 weeks; Buttigieg passes an improving Sanders; Bloomberg skyrockets to 6th place after his filing for Alabama primary sparks speculation of a run

Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline, dropping from 2.25X to 2.27X. These are his lowest odds in over 6 months (since mid April). He is still more than twice as high as Warren, his closest competitor. His odds against the top 5 Democrats saw a more dramatic drop (from 45.3% to 44.7%) as their combined odds improved from 1.86X to 1.75X.

Elizabeth Warren continued her recent trend of drops. She was down from 4.17X to 4.89X. She has now dropped for four straight weeks and is at an 8 weeks low. Although there isn’t any direct news that would hurt her candidacy, more moderate alternatives like Buttigieg and Bloomberg are eating into her grip on the Democratic nomination.

Pete Buttigieg seems to have taken the torch from Warren in recent weeks. It’s no coincidence that his hot streak started at the same time as the end of Warren’s. His odds have improved from last week’s 14.3X to 11.4X. He has nearly tripled his odds from 7 weeks ago (31.1X). Buttigieg has been gaining ground in Iowa especially at the expense of Biden. He jumped Sanders in the odds this week, despite the improvement from Sanders (12.8X to 12.1X).

Michael Bloomberg has not officially entered, but he did file for the Alabama primary (Alabama has an early deadline). He is considering jumping in as he sees Biden’s chances dropping. There is a lot of speculation on a potential path to the nomination. Even without his formal entry, Bloomberg’s odds jumped to take him from 12th place to 6th place overall as they moved from 88.4X to 16.1X, his all time high.

Here are the odds for candidates with a better than 250X to 1 shot and a trend of the top candidates:

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