Donald Trump continued to be fairly steady at the top. His payout has ranged between 2.4x and 2.5x in each of the last 8 weeks. He has seen his probability go down a little bit. It is at its lowest in the last 5 weeks at 25.5%. He peaked at 26.9% five weeks ago.
It looks like Elizabeth Warren made the most of her being silenced on the Senate floor. She remains in 3rd overall , but her payout dropped from 10.7X the prior week to 9.8X. Her probability is now at 6.6% but remains behind Mike Pence’s 7.4% for second place.
Paul Ryan took a little hit with his payout moving from 26.4X to 26.9X. That allowed Bernie Sanders to hop over him for 7th place.
The big mover on the week, and of the last 3 weeks has been Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg. Four weeks ago, Zuckerberg was in 45th place with a payout of 107.3X. Reports started coming out about the possibility of him running. He immediately shot up to 32nd place with a payout of 80X. This week he was up once again now to 19th place with the payout decreasing to just 54.2X.
The bumpy start of the Trump Administration has not hurt Trump’s odds much. Over the last 4 weeks, the payout has barely moved from 2.4X to 2.5X and he still has a higher probability than the next 5.
Trump’s two main competitors in 2016 gained ground this week despite the Democrats wanting new leadership and the fact that both will be well into their 70s (like Trump) in 2020.
Hillary Clinton continued to be in 5th place but her payout dropped for the second straight week, this time to 21.8X from 23.1X.
Bernie Sanders rose from 10th place to 8th place and his payoff is now at 26.7X from 29X. He still only has a 2.4% probability.
The biggest mover was John Hickenlooper, the Democratic Governor of Colorado. He moved from 24th place to 19th place. His payoff moved from 66.3X to 56.3X. He is only at 1.1% probability.
Donald Trump continued to dominate the odds having as much probability as the next six candidates combined. The payoff for placing a bet on Trump remained the same at 2.4X.
Biggest Movers up:
Bernie Sanders: 11th place from 18th as payoff dropped from 33.9x to 28.3x
Nikki Haley: 31st place to 20th place as payoff dropped from 77.3X to 40.7X
Biggest Movers down:
Tim Kaine: 13th place from 8th place as payoff increased from 22.6x to 29.6x
Joe Biden: 14th place from 10th place as payoff increased from 23.1x to 30.0x
Marco Rubio: 21st place from 15th place as payoff increased from 30.0x to 41.4x
Debuts:
Sherrod Brown: D Senator from OH at 16th place with 34.0X
Tulsi Gabbard: D Rep from HI at 22nd place with 51.0X
Leonardo DiCaprio: Actor 36th place with 81.0X
Sarah Palin: former R Gov of AK 40th place with 101X
