Category Archives: Sanders 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Booker 2020, Gabbard 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Williamson 2020

Second Democratic debate leads to change in leadership as Harris stumbles and Biden doesn’t. Gabbard, Booker, and Williamson among the winners from debate. Warren continues streak while Sanders stops cold streak. Trump registers another new odds high.

Donald Trump’s Odds continued to be on a roll reaching a new high. The odds improved from last week’s all time high of 1.92X to this week’s 1.90X. He is still in a dead heat however with the top 5 Democrats which also improved from 1.92X to 1.90X combined.

Speaking of the Democrats, the second debate caused a lot of changes in the odds.

The first debate’s winner was undoubtedly Kamala Harris. It seems she is the biggest loser of the second debate. She was attacked on her healthcare plan and her record as a prosecutor. Her odds dropped from 6.3X and second place last week, to 8.0X and 4th place. Her odds are still ahead of where she was prior to the first debate (14X) and in line where she was at right after the first debate (7.5X).

The biggest winner was last debate’s biggest loser, Joe Biden. Unlike last debate, he didn’t stumble, and with Harris’ stumbles, that was enough to regain the lead. His odds jumped from 8.3X to 6.5X. He is once again the favorite for the Democrats. Biden is still behind the 5.5X he was at prior to the first debate and his all time high of 5.2X in early June.

Elizabeth Warren was another winner. She and Bernie Sanders were the liberals on their night against the more moderate candidates. They didn’t take shots at each other and that seemed to help. She continued her hot streak and is now up in 14 of the last 15 weeks. She improved from 8.4X to 8.0X, a new all time high. She was able to move slightly ahead of Harris for 3rd place overall.

Like Warren, Bernie Sanders also improved ending a 14 weeks steak of drops. He improved from 16.0X to 14.2X. He remained in 5th place.

Other winners included:

Aside from Kamala Harris, other losers included:

  • Beto O’ Rourke who dropped from 63.4X to 83.5X (9th place to 11th place). These are his lowest odds since making his debut after the viral video back in August 2018. He had a “subdued” performance without stumbles. That wasn’t enough.
  • Amy Klobuchar who dropped from 74.3X to 93.2X. (11th place to 12th place) She is another candidate at her all time lows. Despite the lack of momentum, she managed to qualify for the next set of debates.

Here are all of the candidates that participated in the debate and their odds last week and this week:

Here are the full odds of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds continue to inch up setting new highs; Biden sees a small rebound after two weeks of large declines; Warren continues hot streak, setting a new high; Harris, Sanders, and Buttigieg see drops

Donald Trump’s odds continued to inch up moving from 1.99X to 1.98X, another all time high. This slow rise started at the end of May when he was at 2.04X. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats also improved a bit as they increased to 48.8% from 48.7% as the 5 Dems as a group stayed flat at 1.89X.

Joe Biden ended his two week post debate decline. His odds jumped to their highest post debate, at 8.19X compared to last week’s 8.66X. He was at 6.81X and second place prior to the debate. Even with the rise, and Kamala Harris’ drop this week (from 5.57X to 5.88X), Biden remained in 3rd place. Biden and Harris will get a chance at round 2 as they are once again matched up in the second debate.

Along with Harris, Elizabeth Warren was the other winner from the debates. She had momentum prior to it, and has maintained that momentum. Her odds improved this week from 9.45X to 8.88X. This is an all time high for her. Warren is known to do the behind the scenes work, whether it be putting out detailed policy, or doing the groundwork needed to win over voters, which she seems to have done for the pivotal Iowa caucus.

Trump, Biden, and Warren were the only three candidates in the top 10 to improve. Bernie Sanders continued to drop coming in at 15.6X. He has now dropped for 13 straight weeks and is at his lowest point in 5 months. Pete Buttigieg has now dropped 4 straight weeks at 16.6X, his lowest in 16 weeks.

Here are the candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 581
2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Castro 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump reaches new high; Harris leapfrogs Biden; Warren widens gap over Sanders; Julian Castro continues to have momentum

Donald Trump’s odds reached a new high this week as they are now at an even 2.00X surpassing the previous high of 2.02X set 4 weeks ago. We started tracking his odds compared to the next 5 Democrats combined. His implied likelihood increased from 48.1% last week to 49.0% as the top 5 Democrats decreased from a combined 1.88X to 1.92X.

Kamala Harris continued with her momentum coming out of the first debate as she improved from 7.53X to 6.33X. That combined with Biden’s continued struggles allowed her to jump over the VP to be the leading Democratic candidate as far the odds are concerned. The odds are just reflecting the post debate polls.

The other pair that swapped positions last week continued their recent trend. Warren continued to improve moving from from 9.7X to 9.4X, putting her in striking distance of Biden. These are all new highs for Warren. Bernie Sanders continues to lose momentum dropping from 12.8X to 14.0X. These are his lowest odds since the middle of February.

The under the radar candidate of the moment seems to be Julian Castro. He had one of the top debate performances and polls show it. His odds improved this week from 115.1X to 110.6X allowing him to jump to 14th place. He has improved the last 5 weeks. At that time he was in 30th place at 147.7X.

Here are the candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 622