Category Archives: Romney 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Gillibrand 2020, Newsom 2020, Romney 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Flat to Last Week even with the Release of Fire and Fury; Gillibrand Jumps into Top 10; Newsom Continues Hot Streak; Romney Odds Show Signs of Life on Senate Speculation

Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week even as the controversial behind the scenes book Fire and Fury was released on Friday.  The payout continued to be at 3.28X and has now been between 3.25X and 3.30X for the last 11 weeks.

The hot name continued to be Kirsten Gillibrand. Speculation that the Senator is running has been increasing as she takes actions that would earn her favor with the left wing of the party. Her payout is now at 27.6X down from last week’s 33.8X.  That was enough to move her from 12th place to 10th place.  Her payout was at 45.8X and she was in 19th place 5 weeks ago before calling for the resignations of Senator Franken and President Trump due to sexual allegations.

Another name that has been improving the last few weeks is Gavin Newsom.  The current Lt. Governor of CA has a payout of 32.2X and moved up from 13th place to 12th place.  Five weeks ago he was at 50.8X and in 22nd place.  This week he took shots at Trump’s decision to open up offshore oil exploration.

Mitt Romney saw an improvement in odds this week as his payout decreased from 65.5X to 62.2X and he moved up from 36th place to 32nd place.  Orrin Hatch decided not to run for re-election in Utah opening up an opportunity for Romney to get back into politics in the Senate in 2018 and possibly challenge Trump in a primary in 2020.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 719

2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, Haley 2020, Kasich 2020, Paul 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Rubio 2020, Ryan 2020, Scott 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Speculation about a GOP Primary Challenge Heats Up

Donald Trump continues to be the heavy favorite to win the 2020 elections, although his odds have dropped for the 5th straight week. This week, his payout has increased from 3.2X to 3.3X.  It was at 3.0X just 5 weeks ago.  His probability, at 19%, is still nearly 3 times the his next competitor, Mike Pence.

As his popularity has dropped, there has been speculation that Trump will get a challenge in the Primary.  Who could that challenge come from?  Here the other GOP candidates in the top 35:

Mike Pence: Although Mike Pence is unlikely to challenge Trump in a primary, he remains the 2nd highest from an odds perspective at 8.9X.  This basically signals that he will be the favorite for 2020 if Trump resigns, is impeached, or chooses not to run.  What’s interesting is his odds seem to move in the same direction as Trump’s: He seems to have peaked in the middle of June, which is Trump’s recent high.  At that time his payout was at 8.3X.

Paul Ryan: Ryan is currently 3rd among the Republicans and all the way down at 12th overall.  Like Pence, his success currently seems to hinge on Trump’s.  He peaked in early July at 25.5X and has been dropping  like Trump and Pence.  He is currently at 32.9X.

Marco Rubio: Rubio has been more openly critical than any of the Republicans above him.  Over the last two weeks he has moved from 20th place to 15th place.  He is currently at 41.2X.

Nikki Haley: Haley has probably done the best job in balancing being part of the administration (UN Ambassador) and keeping her distance from Trump.  She has improved over the last two weeks from 24th place to 21st place.  Her payout is currently at 45.5X.

John Kasich: Kasich has been the most consistent in being against some of Trump’s policies, like healthcare, while not attacking Trump in a personal manner.  At this point he would be the most likely to challenge Trump in a primary.  Kasich’s odds have moved more than anybody over the last two weeks with his payout moving from 59.6X to 48.9X.  He is currently in 25th place.

Ted Cruz: Cruz and Kasich were Trump’s last opponents in the primary, and would therefore be expected to be the favorites to be his primary opponents.  Although they are close in odds (Cruz is at 61.7X and in 28th place), Cruz has not moved much the last two weeks (He was in 29th place at 61.7X).

Mitt Romney: Romney has been mostly out of the public spotlight since his failed 2012 run.  His odds have showed little movement over the last year and he is currently in 30th place at 64.3X.

Tim Scott: Scott has just joined the leader board this week in 34th place at 67X.  The African-American GOP Senator came out this week saying Trump has lost his “moral authority”.

Rand Paul:  Paul has held steady.  he had been at 67X for 16 straight weeks until he dropped to 71X this week.  He is currently in 35th place.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 798

2020 Weekly Odds, Harris 2020, Romney 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Updated Election Odds: Little Change in Trump Odds; Bernie Sanders Up to 5th on Hot Streak; Kamala Harris and Romney Move Up

There was very little change in Donald Trump’s odds this week despite reports indicating he is personally under investigation by the special counsel.  The payout remained at 3.0X  for the fourth week in a row and his probability dropped slightly from 20.8% to 20.7%.

Bernie Sanders saw a big jump moving from a payout of 22.6X to 22.1X.  That was enough for him to jump into 5th place from 7th. Sanders has been hot having his payout decrease in each of the last 7 weeks.

Kamala Harris has seen her profile increase with the hearings and her odds have followed. Her payout has dropped from 33.3X to 31.9X.  That was enough for her to move up to 12th place from 13th place.

Mitt Romney was a name from the past that resurfaced this past week on the back of Joe Biden encouraging him to run for Senate.  His payout was at 67.0X for the last 21 weeks, but improved this week to 61.7X.  This moved him up from 30th place to 29th place.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 778