Category Archives: Obama 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Obama 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds See Slight Improvement while Biden’s Stayed Flat. Obama’s Odds Jump to 14 Months High; Warren’s VP Odds Improve; Iowa Poll Shows Trump’s Lead in State Shrinking

Trump’s odds inched up from 1.93X to 1.91X. That is a three week high. Joe Biden’s odds stayed flat at 2.27X , his lowest since he became the presumptive nominee. That raised Trump’s implied odds against Biden to 54.2%, tied for the highest lead since it became a one on one race.

With Biden stuck, there have been some movement in the Democratic field. The biggest move this week came from Michelle Obama. She has been more visible lately with the release of her Netflix documentary and publicity about her co-headlining some virtual graduation ceremonies. Her odds jumped this week from 85.0X to 63.9X. She has been improving the last two months from 178.5X at the beginning of March to 113.2X middle of April. Her current odds are at a 14 months high.

Here are the full odds:

On the VP side, Warren moved a little closer to Harris and Klobuchar. Masto is perhaps the least publicized candidate but is holding up to lead that second tier.

Here are the full odds:

Many polls were released this week, but most were for strong Biden states (NY, NJ, CT, MA) where Biden’s lead ranged from 19 to 34. There was one swing state pull in IA showing Trump +2. We already have Iowa going to Trump, but this follows an early March poll showing Trump +!0.

No changes made in the projections: 316 Biden to 222 Trump. Here are the details:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Obama 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s odds lead over Biden at a 4-week low; Michigan and Pennsylvania polls continue to show Biden ahead; Obama’s odds for top spot jump as talk of her as a VP candidate heat up; Top two VP candidates remain Harris and Klobuchar

Trump’s odds dropped from 1.88X to 1.92X, his lowest odds in four weeks. The odds are finally starting to catch up to the recent drops in his favorability: dropped from 44.0% last week to 43.5% this week. They were at a high of 45.8% three weeks ago when they started dropping.

Joe Biden’s odds improved from 2.19X to 2.13X, his highest since the middle of March. His relative odds against Trump improved from 46.2% to 47.3%, a 4 week high.

The biggest move interestingly was in Michelle Obama’s odds as they improved from 113.2X to 94.2X, her highest since December 2019. There was numerous speculation of her being a possible VP candidate, including in an interview with Biden’s wife.

Here are the full odds:

The speculation is growing on the possible VP candidates for Biden. The odds would suggest there’s a 50% chance of either Harris or Klobuchar, and 50% of all other candidates.

Here are the full odds:

One the state polling side, Possible swing state polls released this week included:

  • Poll showing Tie in Fla
  • Poll showing Biden +4 in Fla
  • Poll showing Biden +3 in Fla
  • Poll showing Biden +8 in Mich
  • Poll showing Biden +8 in Penn
  • Poll showing Biden +6 in Penn
  • Poll showing Trump +5 in Tex

We’re still keeping Florida as a tossup. The polls reinforced the view on Mich and Penn going to Biden.

As a result projections remained the same as last week of 316 Biden to 222 Trump. Here are the details:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Clinton 2020, Haley 2020, Obama 2020, Pence 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Biden’s odds nearly double again, reaching new highs; Trump’s odds see a drop, but stay ahead of Biden; Sanders odds lowest in three weeks, passed by a soaring Pence for third place; Odds of Clinton, Haley, and Obama also soar

Joe Biden had more large wins on Super Tuesday II including winning Michigan. As a result, his odds have basically doubled for the second straight week. They have now gone from 8.70X two weeks ago, to 3.99X last week, to 2.12X this week. These are the highest odds for any Democrat this cycle.

Donald Trump’s odds saw a sizable drop, possibly because polls show Biden is a more formidable opponent head to head than Sanders (more on that in a bit), or possibly of the impact of the Corona Virus. After being in a tight range of 1.59X to 1.60X the last five weeks, Trump’s odds dropped to 1.97X, his lowest in three months. The combined odds for Biden and Sanders improved to 1.98X, just shy of Trump. That’s an implied 50.2%/49.8% probability edge to Trump.

Sanders’ disappointing finish on Tuesday dropped his odds from 12.0X to 32.0X. It’s hard to believe just two weeks ago, he was at 3.99X. This is the lowest he has been in over 3 years (Jan 2017).

Mike Pence’s odds more than doubled. Perhaps that’s a hedge on Trump getting sick. Pence’s visibility has also increased tremendously driven by Trump appointing him as the head of the Corona Virus task force. The odds are now at 29.3X, his highest in over a year. These odds actually put him ahead of Bernie Sanders.

There were other jumps in people not running:

  • Hillary Clinton jumped from 71.1X to 39.6X, her highest in 10 weeks
  • Nikki Haley jumped from 242.7X to 116.1X, her highest in 8 weeks
  • Michelle Obama jumped from 178.5X to 116.5X, her highest in 10 weeks.

Here are the full odds:

For the second week we are turning the focus to the state by state polls of Trump vs. Biden and Trump vs. Sanders. These are starting to show a big differentiation, perhaps due to Biden’s momentum. In the last two weeks, polls have been done in 11 states. In 9 of those 11, Biden does better than Sanders against Trump. The other two are even. The biggest differences:

  • AZ, where two polls show Biden up by 8 pts and 6 pts, while they show Sanders ahead of Trump by 5 in one and Trump ahead by 7 in another.
  • Florida poll shows Trump up over Biden by 2 (statistical tie), but up over Sanders by 6
  • Pennsylvania Biden by 6 over Trump but Sanders only up by 2 (statistical tie)

The impact of those three states leads to a big victory for Biden over Trump (as we stand today) but basically a tossup for Sanders.

Here are the state by state projection based on the polls and the history of those states:

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