Category Archives: Moulton 2020

Donald Trump reaches a new high for third straight week; Biden soars as he finally makes it official; Did Warren finally bottom? Moulton enters race as a moderate Democrat

Donald Trump’s odds continued rising for the 9th straight week. This week they were up from 2.20X to 2.18X. At the start of the streak, the odds were 2.93X. This is the third straight week where Trump has reached a new high. The past couple of weeks have seen a rare diversion between Trump’s net approval rating (dropping from -10 to -12) and the betting odds. It’s clear some money was on the sidelines waiting for the Mueller report and have since been put on the President getting re-elected.

The much awaited entry of Joe Biden finally took place this week. The former VP stumbled in his first interview, raised more money than other Democrats on their first day, and was welcomed by Trump to the race with a nickname. His odds soared from 10.3X last week to 8.18X this week, enough for him to jump over Kamala Harris for 3rd place overall. These are the highest odds he has had since allegations of unwanted touching came out a month ago.

Elizabeth Warren has had a rather disappointing time so far this election season. The Senator reached a high in February of 2017 when she was in 3rd place at 9.7X. She has slowly drifted down since and was at her lowest point of the cycle last week at 34.0X and in 8th place. Her odds may have finally bottomed as they had a small improvement to 32.0X. It will be interesting to see how Warren’s policy-based run does once the debates begin.

Another candidate that announced this week was Seth Moulton. The Marine veteran positioned himself as more moderate than Sanders and Warren. The oddsmakers weren’t impressed as his odds dropped from 155.2X to 174.6X. He is in 55th place this week.

Here are the 71 candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

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