Category Archives: Demings 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Demings 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Biden’s Odds reach a new high, narrows gap with Trump; Protests have large impact on VP odds as Bottoms makes debut while Klobuchar drops; Polls tighten in FL, MN, UT, MO

Donald Trump’s odds dropped from 1.91X to 1.98X, their lowest in 2020. They had been in a tight range the previous 8 weeks between 1.88X and 1.93X. As a result, Joe Biden’s odds were the mirror image improving from 2.26X to 2.06X. The 2.06X is an all time high for Biden. The previous high was in the middle of March at 2.12X. Trump’s edge in a one on one matchup is now down from 54.1% to 51.0%

Here are the full odds:

On the VP side, the demonstrations and unrest resulting from the death of George Floyd seem to be driving the odds. Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar’s odds sank from 5.3X to 16.7X. On the other hand, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has upped her profile, and as a result, made her debut at 16.7X. Val Demings continued to improve jumping from last week’s 11.1X to this week’s 7.7X. Warren also saw a jump this week from 9.1X to 7.7X as multiple media outlets proclaimed her the front-runner. Kamala Harris, however, continued to be the odds favorite, improving her odds to 2.8X. She has led the odds every week since we started tracking them seven weeks ago.

Here are the full odds:

The polls didn’t change the overall forecast although some were tighter than expected. Trump has made Florida and Minnesota tighter than previous polls while Biden has made Utah and Missouri tighter. It’s unknown which of these are true tightenings vs. just outlier polls. Future polls will answer that. For now here are the polls:

  • Minnesota Biden +5 (keep to Biden)
  • Maryland Biden +24 (Keep to Biden)
  • Utah Trump +3 (Keep to Trump, tighter than expected after previous double digit leads)
  • New York Biden +25 (keep to Biden)
  • Missouri Trump +4 (Keep to Trump, tighter than expected)
  • Florida Biden +1 (tighter than expected, keep to Biden as previous polls were +6, +3, +4)

We are keeping our forecast at 330 Biden 208 Trump. Details by state below:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Demings 2020, Trump 2020

Odds for Trump and Biden flat to last week even as Trump’s approval continues to decline, and Biden has another “gaffe”; Val Demings shoots up the VP odds; Biden leads poll in swing state AZ for 7th straight time

Odds for both Trump and Biden remained flat with Trump at 1.91X, tied with the last three weeks for a five week high, and Biden at 2.26X, tied with last week for a 4 weeks high. Trump’s implied odds against Biden saw a small drop from 54.2% to 54.1% (rounding). The disconnect between net approval rating (-7% at start of month, -10% current according to five thirty eight) and state polls (see below) on the one hand and the odds on the other hand continued.

Here are the full odds:

On the VP side, Val Demings continued to move up the odds a week after making her debut. She further raised her profile this week as she attacked Trump for trying to capitalize on Biden’s comment about African American voters. She rose from 8th place and 25.0X to 4th place and 11.1X.

Here are the full odds:

Only one poll from a swing state was released this week with Biden leading Trump in AZ by 7. Here is the full set of polls:

  • Tennessee Trump +17
  • Virginia Biden +12
  • Arizona Biden +7
  • Washington Biden +26
  • California Biden +28
  • Kentucky Trump +16

AZ only reinforced our call for that state to Biden. We are keeping our forecast at 330 Biden 208 Trump. Details by state below:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Abrams 2020, Biden 2020, Demings 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

Odds for Trump and Biden flat with Trump still holding a lead; Harris and Abrams see boost while Demings makes her debut in VP odds; Polls in TX, OH, and NC show Trump in lead while polls in FL and WI show Biden in lead

Trump’s odds remained flat at 1.91X, tied for a 4 week high. Biden’s inched up to 2.26X from 2.27X, a 3 week high. Trump’s implied odds against Biden remained at 54.2% (rounding), tied for the highest lead since it became a one on one race.

Here are the full odds:

On the VP side, the odds rose for most female African American candidates: Kamala Harris remained the top candidate and rose from 3.6X to 2.9X. Stacy Abrams rose from 16.7X to 12.5X. Val Demings made her debut at 25.0X (tied with Michelle Obama for 7th place).

Here are the full odds:

Polls from swing states released this week included:

  • Texas +6 for Trump (reinforces TX for Trump after last week’s Biden +1)
  • Ohio +3 for Trump (after 3 straight for Biden, reinforcing why we still have it as a tossup)
  • Wisconsin Biden +3 (3 straight for Biden, but too slim to pull out of tossup)
  • North Carolina Trump +3 (reinforcing the tossup with the last 4 polls being split)
  • Florida Biden +6. This is the biggest news and causes us to pull FL out of the tossup and into Biden’s. Biden has now led the last three polls in that state +4, +3, and now his widest margin of +6

With the change in Florida, the projection is now at Biden 330 and Trump 208. This is a big disconnect from the odds. The odds and the polls are what they are. We are making a judgment call on what the polls mean electorally. People are betting that just like 2016, the polls are misleading. Here are the details behind the electoral forecast:

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