Category Archives: Clinton 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds set a new high ahead of likely acquittal in the Senate; Sanders continues to surge; Klobuchar and Yang peaking at right time for Iowa?

Donald Trump’s Odds reached a new high during a week where the Republican Senate voted against allowing witnesses in the impeachment trial, leading to a likely acquittal next week. The odds improved from 1.75X to 1.68X. His previous high was two weeks ago at 1.72X. His odds against the top 5 Democrats improved from 53.3% to 54.5%. The odds of the top 5 Democrats saw a small drop from 2.00X to 2.02X.

Bernie Sanders continued to be the hottest name as polls continued to see him surging. His odds reached a new high for a second week in a row climbing from 5.61X to 5.15X. The high for the Democrats this cycle is still held by Warren who was at 3.32X in October, around the time Sanders had his heart attack.

Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg continued to decline. Warren declined from 23.8X to 31.6X, that is the 16th decline in a row, ever since hitting the all time high mentioned above. This is her lowest since May 2019.

Pete Buttigieg dropped from 37.7X to 45.7X. This is his 9th drop in a row and his lowest since March 2019.

The drops by Warren and Buttigieg gave hope to Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang. Klobuchar might be peaking at the right time for Iowa. Her odds improved from 99.8X to 79.4X. That still leaves her in 9th place behind undeclared Hillary Clinton (49.8X).

Andrew Yang’s odds improved from 44.2X to 37.9X. That’s significant because it means he passed Pete Buttigieg for 6th place overall (and got added to the graph below)

Here is a trend of the top candidates as well as the odds of the top 20:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds jump to 16 week high; Bernie’s momentum continues, as he jumps Buttigieg for second place among Democrats; Clinton speculation helps push her odds to a 2 1/2 year high; Biden’s odds continue slow improvement, now at a 3 months high

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Donald Trump’s odds saw a significant jump for the second straight week, this time from 2.14X to 2.00X. These are his best odds since the end of August. Although recent headlines have been around impeachment, history has shown a strong economy makes it nearly impossible to unseat an incumbent, and recent economic numbers have erased speculation of a recession. The top 5 Democrats saw a drop from 1.92X to 1.99X meaning it’s now almost a tossup between them and Trump.

For the second straight week Bernie Sanders seems to have the momentum for the Democrats. His odds rose from 10.1X to 9.2X. These are his best odds in 6 months. Last week he jumped Warren. This week he passed Buttigieg. Some may underestimate him, but others are beginning to take notice.

The other Democratic candidate to jump this week is Hillary Clinton as buzz that she may run continued. This week it was comments by former Bill Clinton adviser Dick Morris. Her odds improved from 29.4X to 24.3X. These are her highest odds in over 2 1/2 years.

Biden was able to stay fairly flat up from 6.95X to 6.73X. He’s been quietly reasserting his lead. This is now a 14 week high for him.

All other top Democratic candidates saw a drop with Buttigieg dropping from 9.0X to 10.6X, a five week low. Warren from 10.2X to 11.4X, a 6 months low. Bloomberg from 14.8X to 15.8X, a 3 week low.

Here is the list of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot and a recent trend of the top candidates:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Patrick 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds see another small drop; Warren’s cold streak reaches 5, as Buttigieg reaches new high and Sanders rebounds to pre heart attack odds; Patrick enters while Clinton won’t rule out a run

Donald Trump’s odds continued a recent trend of slow declines. They dropped from 2.27X to 2.29X. They have either been flat or have dropped for eight straight weeks when the odds were at 2.02X. Despite the drop, Trump’s odds against the top five Democrats actually increased to 44.1% from 43.4%, as their combined odds dropped from 1.75X to 1.80X. This a result of increases in candidates outside of the top five.

Elizabeth Warren continued her cold streak of now 5 weeks. Her odds dropped from 4.89X to 5.32X. This is her lowest since the beginning of September. Her odds are still 35% higher than Biden’s, although they were more than double just 5 weeks ago.

The two big winners from Warren’s drop continue to be Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. Buttigieg improved from 11.4X to 10.3X. This is yet another high, and he has improved for seven straight weeks. He was at 31.1X at the start of the streak, and has nearly tripled his odds over that span. One poll this week showed Buttigieg to be at the top of Iowa.

Bernie Sanders improved from 12.1X to 11.2X. He has now improved the last 5 weeks (since his heart attack) from 22.1X (doubling his odds). These are his highest odds in nine weeks.

There was some big movement outside of the top 5 Democrats this week:

One week after skyrocketing, Michael Bloomberg’s odds saw a pullback, dropping from 16.1X to 23.8X. This is still way above where he was two weeks ago at 88.4X. He still has not made a decision on whether he is running, but that is likely days away according to Axios.

Hillary Clinton’s odds improved from 29.2X to 26.0X as she refuses to rule out running.

Deval Patrick made it official and announced he is running. His odds shot up from 260.7X to 112.6X, his highest in over 6 months, putting him in 15th overall, putting him just behind Klobuchar and Harris but ahead of Booker and Castro. It will be interesting to see who he hurts, if he starts gaining traction. One the one hand he is more moderate and may pull from a Buttigieg or Bloomberg. On the other hand he is well known in the northeast which may take primary votes from the likes of Warren.

Below are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as the trend of the top candidates:

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