Category Archives: Buttigieg 2020

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Cruz 2020, Harris 2020, Kasich 2020, Romney 2020, Sasse 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds drop for a 3rd week in a row, still near highs; Warren, Biden, Steyer improve; Harris and Buttigieg continue to drop; Odds of Republican alternatives showing signs of life

Donald Trump’s Odds saw a drop for a third straight week moving from 1.93X to 1.98X. the 1.98X is his lowest in 5 weeks but is still close to his all time high of 1.90X achieved the beginning of August. His odds compared to the top 5 Democrats also decreased from 49.9% to 50.7%. This was purely a result of his drop. The top 5 Democrats saw a small decrease from 1.92X to 1.93X.

Elizabeth Warren continued to be the hottest name improving once again. Warren’s odds are now at 5.90X up from 6.14X. This is another new high for her. The Democratic high is held by Joe Biden at 5.19X in June. She has improved or been flat in 18 straight weeks.

Joe Biden saw a small improvement from 6.89X to 6.63X. This basically puts him back to where he was a few weeks ago after the 2nd debate.

Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg continued to drop. Harris declined from 11.8X to 13.4X. She has now declined for 6 straight weeks and is at her lowest point in 9 weeks.

Buttigieg declined from 21.7X to 24.4X. He has now declined in nine straight weeks and has reached his lowest point since later March.

Tom Steyer continued to improve as he still has a chance to qualify for the 3rd debate using his own money to buy ads which have translated into name recognition and movement in the polls. He improved from 137X to 121X. This is the highest he has been since April. He is now in 15th place overall jumping from 44th place two weeks ago.

Although there’s been talk of additional primary challenges to Trump like Joe Walsh (who’s not even in the odds yet), the interesting movement is with Republicans not likely to challenge Trump. This could be a hedge on Trump not finishing his term. For example, Mitt Romney was up from 148X to 137X, a 9 week high. John Kasich was up from 175X to 164X, a 5 week high. Ben Sasse was up from 229X to 191X. a 17 week high. Ted Cruz was up from 260X to 210X, a 17 week high.

Below is a list of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s odds see small dip, still close to all time high; Warren continues to be hottest name while Sanders continue to benefit from debate; Harris and Buttigieg continue recent cold streak

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small dip from 1.90X to 1.91X. That is still the 2nd highest he has been after last week’s number. His odds against the top 5 Democrats remained basically 50%/50% as they also dropped from 1.90X to 1.92X.

Elizabeth Warren continued to be the hottest name. She improved from 7.98X to 7.53X. She has now improved in 15 of the last 16 weeks. This is another new high for Warren, and widens the formerly narrow gap she had over Kamala Harris. She is quickly making herself the alternative to Biden for the Democrats.

Bernie Sander’s continued to ride the wave after the second debate. He was up from 14.2X to 12.9X. The debate ended a downward trend for the Vermont Senator. This is his highest point in 6 weeks.

On the other end of the spectrum was Kamala Harris. Her odds dropped from 8.04X to 8.88X. She has now dropped for four straight weeks. She was at 5.57X and in 4th place the middle of July. She became the first Democrat to buy some air time in Iowa, a key early voting state.

Another candidate drifting down is Pete Buttigieg. He dropped from 18.9X to 20.9X, and has now dropped for 7 straight weeks. He was at 12.4 on 6/22. This is his lowest point since around mid March.

The one cold candidate that reversed his trend, at least for this week, is Beto O’ Rourke. After establishing an all time low last week of 83.5X (He started at 54.7X in August 2018), O’Rourke saw an increase to 65.6X, basically where he was just two weeks ago, prior to the debate. This may be a result of a higher profile with the shootings in El Paso. We’ll see next week.

Here is a list of all the candidates with better than 200 to 1 odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds continue to inch up setting new highs; Biden sees a small rebound after two weeks of large declines; Warren continues hot streak, setting a new high; Harris, Sanders, and Buttigieg see drops

Donald Trump’s odds continued to inch up moving from 1.99X to 1.98X, another all time high. This slow rise started at the end of May when he was at 2.04X. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats also improved a bit as they increased to 48.8% from 48.7% as the 5 Dems as a group stayed flat at 1.89X.

Joe Biden ended his two week post debate decline. His odds jumped to their highest post debate, at 8.19X compared to last week’s 8.66X. He was at 6.81X and second place prior to the debate. Even with the rise, and Kamala Harris’ drop this week (from 5.57X to 5.88X), Biden remained in 3rd place. Biden and Harris will get a chance at round 2 as they are once again matched up in the second debate.

Along with Harris, Elizabeth Warren was the other winner from the debates. She had momentum prior to it, and has maintained that momentum. Her odds improved this week from 9.45X to 8.88X. This is an all time high for her. Warren is known to do the behind the scenes work, whether it be putting out detailed policy, or doing the groundwork needed to win over voters, which she seems to have done for the pivotal Iowa caucus.

Trump, Biden, and Warren were the only three candidates in the top 10 to improve. Bernie Sanders continued to drop coming in at 15.6X. He has now dropped for 13 straight weeks and is at his lowest point in 5 months. Pete Buttigieg has now dropped 4 straight weeks at 16.6X, his lowest in 16 weeks.

Here are the candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

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