Donald Trump continued to be fairly steady at the top. His payout has ranged between 2.4x and 2.5x in each of the last 8 weeks. He has seen his probability go down a little bit. It is at its lowest in the last 5 weeks at 25.5%. He peaked at 26.9% five weeks ago.
It looks like Elizabeth Warren made the most of her being silenced on the Senate floor. She remains in 3rd overall , but her payout dropped from 10.7X the prior week to 9.8X. Her probability is now at 6.6% but remains behind Mike Pence’s 7.4% for second place.
Paul Ryan took a little hit with his payout moving from 26.4X to 26.9X. That allowed Bernie Sanders to hop over him for 7th place.
The big mover on the week, and of the last 3 weeks has been Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg. Four weeks ago, Zuckerberg was in 45th place with a payout of 107.3X. Reports started coming out about the possibility of him running. He immediately shot up to 32nd place with a payout of 80X. This week he was up once again now to 19th place with the payout decreasing to just 54.2X.
The bumpy start of the Trump Administration has not hurt Trump’s odds much. Over the last 4 weeks, the payout has barely moved from 2.4X to 2.5X and he still has a higher probability than the next 5.
Trump’s two main competitors in 2016 gained ground this week despite the Democrats wanting new leadership and the fact that both will be well into their 70s (like Trump) in 2020.
Hillary Clinton continued to be in 5th place but her payout dropped for the second straight week, this time to 21.8X from 23.1X.
Bernie Sanders rose from 10th place to 8th place and his payoff is now at 26.7X from 29X. He still only has a 2.4% probability.
The biggest mover was John Hickenlooper, the Democratic Governor of Colorado. He moved from 24th place to 19th place. His payoff moved from 66.3X to 56.3X. He is only at 1.1% probability.
Donald Trump’s Odds for re-election declined slightly after his first week in office. His payout increased from 2.4X to 2.5X, the highest in 6 weeks. Compared to the rest of the pool he has a 26% chance, still higher than the next five candidates combined.
Hillary Clinton has been moving up since the end of November when she was in 11th place. She is now in 5th place, tied with Cory Booker. Their payout is at 23.1x and their probability is at 2.8%.
The other big mover was Kamala Harris who moves up from 14th place to 12th place. Her payout moved from an average of 32.5x to 30.3x times.
