Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Clinton 2020, Trump 2020

Trump sees small decline, but still widens lead over Biden; Clinton endorses Biden, and sees her own odds jump; Harris and Klobuchar continue to lead for Dem VP; Could TX become a swing state?

Trump’s odds dropped slightly from 1.92X to 1.93X, his lowest odds in seven weeks. His gap with Biden widened however as Biden’s odds dropped by a wider margin moving from 2.13X to 2.27X, his lowest in eight weeks. That puts Trump’s relative odds vs. Biden at 54%, his highest in four weeks.

The number of Democrats endorsing Biden continued to grow, and this week it was Hillary Clinton with the endorsement. Interestingly, Clinton’s odds saw the biggest move this week, jumping from 48.3X to 23.8X, her highest odds since May 2017.

Here are the full odds:

There were no changes in the likely candidates for VP as Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar continued on top of the list, with Warren in the second tier, and Abrams and Whitmer part of the third tier. 5 of the top 8 candidates are female Senators.

Here are the full odds:

On the state polling side, Possible swing state polls released this week included:

  • Poll showing Biden +5 in NC
  • Poll showing Biden +1 in TX
  • Poll showing Biden +8 in NH
  • Poll showing Biden +6 in PA
  • Poll showing tie in TX

The two biggest items as far as the polls is the continuing strength of Biden in PA, which is a must win for both candidates, and the possibility of TX flipping to the Democrats. Right now we still have TX in Trump’s column, and as a result there were no changes made in the projections: 316 Biden to 222 Trump. Here are the details:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Obama 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s odds lead over Biden at a 4-week low; Michigan and Pennsylvania polls continue to show Biden ahead; Obama’s odds for top spot jump as talk of her as a VP candidate heat up; Top two VP candidates remain Harris and Klobuchar

Trump’s odds dropped from 1.88X to 1.92X, his lowest odds in four weeks. The odds are finally starting to catch up to the recent drops in his favorability: dropped from 44.0% last week to 43.5% this week. They were at a high of 45.8% three weeks ago when they started dropping.

Joe Biden’s odds improved from 2.19X to 2.13X, his highest since the middle of March. His relative odds against Trump improved from 46.2% to 47.3%, a 4 week high.

The biggest move interestingly was in Michelle Obama’s odds as they improved from 113.2X to 94.2X, her highest since December 2019. There was numerous speculation of her being a possible VP candidate, including in an interview with Biden’s wife.

Here are the full odds:

The speculation is growing on the possible VP candidates for Biden. The odds would suggest there’s a 50% chance of either Harris or Klobuchar, and 50% of all other candidates.

Here are the full odds:

One the state polling side, Possible swing state polls released this week included:

  • Poll showing Tie in Fla
  • Poll showing Biden +4 in Fla
  • Poll showing Biden +3 in Fla
  • Poll showing Biden +8 in Mich
  • Poll showing Biden +8 in Penn
  • Poll showing Biden +6 in Penn
  • Poll showing Trump +5 in Tex

We’re still keeping Florida as a tossup. The polls reinforced the view on Mich and Penn going to Biden.

As a result projections remained the same as last week of 316 Biden to 222 Trump. Here are the details:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s odds highest since the start of March while Biden’s odds jump with endorsements from Sanders, Warren, and Obama; Poll shows AZ in Biden’s column, resulting in a bigger electoral lead

This week, Trump’s odds improved from 1.89X to 1.88X, his highest since the first week in March. This despite recent drops in his favorability: dropped from 44.4% last week and 45.8% two weeks ago to 44.0% this week.

Joe Biden’s odds improved from 2.24X to 2.19X, his highest since the middle of March. This week was a big endorsement week for the former VP as Sanders, Warren, and Obama all endorsed Biden.

The relative odds would suggest Trump has a 53.8% to 46.2% edge over Biden, the lowest in the last three weeks.

Here are the full odds:

Possible swing state polls released this week included:

  • Poll Showing Biden +1 in NC
  • Poll showing Trump +7 in NC
  • Poll showing Biden +9 in AZ

That moved the projection of AZ from split to Biden.

Current projection now of 316 Biden to 222 Trump. Here are the details:

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