Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Brown 2020, Castro 2020, Gabbard 2020, Harris 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump’s odds see small drop as shutdown enters third week; Kamala Harris’ odds reach new highs as she begins book tour; Castro and Gabbard announce intentions to run; Sherrod Brown visiting early voting states

For the 9th straight week, Donald Trump’s odds declined, this week from 2.86X to 2.88X. He is now at his lowest odds since the end of February. The government shutdown entered its third week, and it seems to have taken a toll on his odds as well as approval. His net approval dropped this week to -13% from -12% last week and -10% at the start of the shutdown.

Kamala Harris is in the midst of her book tour and some see that as the soft launch to her 2020 campaign. Her odds reached a new high improving from 7.79X to 7.42X as she continues to be the odds favorite for the Democrats. Speculation is she will be announcing soon.

Sherrod Brown continues to move up, improving this week from 28.9X to 26.3X, a new high for him. He is now in 8th place overall. He is planning a trip to Iowa and other early voting states.

Julian Castro became the latest to announce he is running in 2020. His odds improved from 75.3X to 71.1X as he moves up from 23rd place to 19th place. His odds may not fully reflect the announcement as it comes on Saturday morning. The same could be said of Tulsi Gabbard who announced on Friday Her odds saw a slight improvement from 35.6X to 33.0X moving her from 13th place to 11th place.

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Gabbard 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized

Trump’s odds continue slow decline, Biden’s odds improve with win in Iowa Caucus poll, Tulsi Gabbard and Amy Klobuchar join the top 10

Donald Trump’s Odds continued their slow decline and are at their lowest since June.  This week marked his 5th straight week of declines moving from 2.65X to 2.67X.  This week had more than usual list of bad headlines for the President including large stock market declines, his Defense Secretary resigning, and a government shutdown over the Wall. His odds were at 2.43X on 11/10 when the declines began. His gap vs. second place (currently Beto O’ Rourke) is now at 2.9X, which is the lowest in over a year. 

Joe Biden won a poll of likely Democrat Iowa Caucus goers last week (32%) followed by Sanders (19%), O’Rourke (11%), Warren (8%), and Harris (5%).  His odds jumped from 16.8X to 15.5X.  These are his best odds in over three months. He remains 4th place overall.

Tulsi Gabbard continues to eye a White House run.  Her odds improved from 35.9X to 33.2X.  That was enough to move her into the top 10 into 9th place.  This is only her second visit into the top 10.  The last was 7 weeks ago and only lasted a week.  That came as reports spread about her approaching staffers about a run.

Amy Klobuchar’s public profile continues to grow, this week through an interview with the New Yorker. The odds moved from 36.0X to 33.3X.  That was enough to move her into the top 10 as well from 12th place. This is her first visit into the top 10.

Below are the full odds:

 

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2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Rubio 2020, Ryan 2020, Sasse 2020, Trump 2020, Uncategorized, Warren 2020

Donald Trump’s odds continue slow decline giving life to the odds of other Republicans; Beto stays hot and takes lead for the Democrats; Former Democratic favorite Warren continues decline, now 6th overall

Donald Trump’s odds continued to drop moving from 2.61X to 2.65X.  He has now dropped for five straight weeks and his odds are their lowest since June.

The recent drops appear to have given life to the odds of Republican alternatives, as a group of them jumped all of a sudden including:

  • Mike Pence from 25.7X to 23.5X
  • Paul Ryan from 83.2X to 78.2X
  • Mitt Romney from 93.3X to 80.8X
  • Marco Rubio from 96.4X to 94.1X
  • Scott Walker from 101.2X to 97.8X
  • Ted Cruz from 115.3X to 110.9X
  • Tom Cotton from 115.4X to 73.9X
  • Ben Sasse from 124.3X to 119.5X

Beto O’Rourke has been the hottest name in the betting odds, and that has seemed to translate to mainstream political pundits, as CNN ranks him second among Democrats for 2020. His odds improved again this time from 8.22X to 7.71 times.  That was enough to have him jump over Kamala Harris to become the odds favorite for Democrats.

The person that has seen the biggest drop recently has been Elizabeth Warren.  In a recent poll, she has dropped to 7th overall for the Democrats. Her odds dropped again this week from 18.1X to 20.1X.  That dropped her to 5th overall in odds for the Democrats.  She was in 2nd place among the Democrats and at 11.5X merely seven weeks ago.

Here are the full odds:

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