Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds stabilize post shutdown; “Tough Boss” Klobuchar’s odds improve as she makes it official; Bloomberg to spend $500 million to defeat Trump whether he runs or not; Yang’s universal income idea increases profile, ups odds

Donald Trump’s odds had a slight increase moving from 2.96X to 2.92X. His odds seem to have stabilized post government shutdown landing in a range of 2.90X to 2.96X the last five weeks. He was at 2.43X in mid November prior to the government shutdown talks.

Amy Klobuchar made it official this week as stories came out about her “tough boss” persona. It made for some interesting interviews where she seems to have embraced the reputation rather than back away from it. Her odds once again improved, this time from 24.6X to 18.5X. This was enough to move her to 6th place, ahead of one-time darling of the left Elizabeth Warren. This is a new high for the Democratic Senator from MN.

Michael Bloomberg is prepared to spend $500 million to defeat Trump whether he runs or not. That’s less than 1% of his reported net worth. His odds improved from 32.1X to 28.3X and he moved up from 12th place to 9th place.

Andrew Yang is a little known Democratic Candidate that seems to have found a way to up his profile. His idea to ensure every American has an income of at least $1,000 a month landed him in Time this week. The increase in publicity has helped him have the highest jump of anyone this week. His odds moved from 169.4X to 127X. That was enough to have him jump from 81st place to 63rd.

Here are the full odds:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 670
2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Schultz 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds decline to lowest in 11 months; Kamala Harris reaches new highs; Sanders set to announce; Schultz running as independent? Pete Buttigieg makes it official, makes debut in odds

Donald Trump’s odds continued their slow decline. He has been down the past 11 weeks, with this week dropping from 2.90X to 2.96X. These are his lowest odds in 11 months. He is now slightly more than twice as likely to win as his next closest competitor Kamala Harris. It will be interesting to see if this trend changes next week with the shutdown ending on Friday. Over the 5 weeks of the shutdown, his net approval rating has gone from around -10% to the current -17%.

Kamala Harris’ odds have been heading in the opposite direction. She was up this week from 7.17X to 6.57X. These are the highest odds ANYONE other than Trump has had this cycle. She has been up the past 6 weeks and has sucked up all the 2020 Democratic coverage the last two weeks.

Bernie Sanders appears to be set to announce he is running. His odds jumped from 20.7X to 17.1X, his highest in 3 months. This was enough to jump him ahead of Elizabeth Warren for 5th place overall.

It appears Howard Schultz will announce he is thinking about running as an independent on 60 minutes. His odds have been up the last few weeks, with this week coming in at 84.5X from last week’s 87.5X. That was enough to move him from 32nd place to 29th place.

Another week, another candidate makes it official. Pete Buttigieg, the 37 year old mayor of South Bend Indiana, threw his name in. With that, he makes his debut in the odds at 103.6X which puts him in 42nd place.

Here are the full odds:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 682
2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Castro 2020, Gabbard 2020, Gillibrand 2020, Schultz 2020, Trump 2020

Government shutdown drags Trump’s odds to lowest point since March; Old guard Dems encouraging Biden to run; Gillibrand announces she is running; Gabbard and Castro see big jumps; Starbucks’ Howard Schultz exploring a run

Donald Trump’s odds dropped for a 10th straight week as the government shutdown headed into its fourth week. The odds are now at 2.90X down from 2.88X last week and 2.43X at the beginning of this streak. The 2.9X is the lowest since March of 2018. Trump’s drop in odds have followed his drop in net approval rating which has dropped from -10% prior to the shutdown to last week’s -13% and this week’s -15%.

“Old guard” Democrats are encouraging former VP Joe Biden to run. His odds seem to reflect a strong likelihood that he will, up for the 7th straight from last week’s 12.0X to this week’s 11.5X. He was at 19.3X at the start of the streak. He remains in 4th place overall.

The trend of candidates announcing their intentions to run continued this week with Kirsten Gillibrand. The NY Senator’s odds improved from 33.9X to 31.3X, and she moved up from 12th place to 11th place.

Two of Gillibrand’s peers, who announced a week earlier, saw even bigger jumps. Tulsi Gabbard improved from 33.0X to 26.8X. That was enough to lift her from 11th to 8th place. Julian Castro improved from 71.1X to 60.5X. That was enough to move him from 19th to 17th place.

Howard Schultz advisers are reportedly exploring a possible 2020 run. The former Starbucks CEO’s odds improved from 93.9X to 87.5X. That was enough to move him from 39th place to 32nd place. He has been as high as 14th place, back in July of 2018.

Here are the full odds:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 658