Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Harris 2020, Moulton 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Donald Trump reaches a new high for third straight week; Biden soars as he finally makes it official; Did Warren finally bottom? Moulton enters race as a moderate Democrat

Donald Trump’s odds continued rising for the 9th straight week. This week they were up from 2.20X to 2.18X. At the start of the streak, the odds were 2.93X. This is the third straight week where Trump has reached a new high. The past couple of weeks have seen a rare diversion between Trump’s net approval rating (dropping from -10 to -12) and the betting odds. It’s clear some money was on the sidelines waiting for the Mueller report and have since been put on the President getting re-elected.

The much awaited entry of Joe Biden finally took place this week. The former VP stumbled in his first interview, raised more money than other Democrats on their first day, and was welcomed by Trump to the race with a nickname. His odds soared from 10.3X last week to 8.18X this week, enough for him to jump over Kamala Harris for 3rd place overall. These are the highest odds he has had since allegations of unwanted touching came out a month ago.

Elizabeth Warren has had a rather disappointing time so far this election season. The Senator reached a high in February of 2017 when she was in 3rd place at 9.7X. She has slowly drifted down since and was at her lowest point of the cycle last week at 34.0X and in 8th place. Her odds may have finally bottomed as they had a small improvement to 32.0X. It will be interesting to see how Warren’s policy-based run does once the debates begin.

Another candidate that announced this week was Seth Moulton. The Marine veteran positioned himself as more moderate than Sanders and Warren. The oddsmakers weren’t impressed as his odds dropped from 155.2X to 174.6X. He is in 55th place this week.

Here are the 71 candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Weld 2020

Trump’s odds see slight increase and reach another new high after release of redacted Mueller report; Buttigieg and Sanders remain hottest names, coming at the expense of Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke; Bill Weld makes his primary challenge of Trump official

There was very little impact to Donald Trump’s odds from the release of the redacted Mueller report, as they moved from 2.23X to 2.20X. This did set a new high for the second straight week.

The two hottest names on the Democratic side remained Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg.

Pete Buttigieg’s gains seem to be coming at the expense of Beto O’Rourke. Just five weeks ago, Buttigieg was in 10th place at 40.5X, he is now at 11.1X (13.0X last week) and just overtook O’Rourke for 5th place overall. Over that same span, Beto has dropped from 8.9X to the current 13.8X. Buttigieg finally made his official entry to the field last week and has been the “surprise of the Democratic field”.

Nine weeks ago Kamala Harris was the darling of the left at 6.4X, more than twice the odds of Bernie Sanders who was at 16.3X (behind Harris, Biden, and Beto). Sanders then made it official and raised $6 million in the next 24 hours. He has continued to improve his odds at the expense of Harris. His odds rose this week from 6.89X to 6.74X. Harris dropped from 7.66X to 8.46X. This week, Sanders made the unexpected move of going to Fox for a Townhall. It became the most watched townhall of this election season.

Bill Weld finally made his challenge of Trump for the Republican nomination official. He is a long-shot to say the least. His odds are at 140.5X which puts him in 38th place overall. To give some perspective, there are 5 other Republicans with higher odds ahead of him: Mike Pence (12th place 63X), Nikki Haley (14th place 82X), Ben Shapiro (20th place 105X), John Kasich (25th place at 117X, coincidentally, he was thought of as most likely to challenge Trump and his odds dropped this week from 105X), and Mitt Romney (27th place 125X).

Here are the full odds:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Buttigieg 2020, Sanders 2020, Swalwell 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders reach new highs; Pete Buttigieg has a great week before official announcement; Eric Swalwell enters race with focus on gun control

Donald Trump reached a new high this past week with his odds improving from 2.35X to 2.23X. His previous high was 2.31X in August 2018. Trump’s odds have now improved for seven straight weeks. He was at 2.93X eight weeks ago. It will be interesting to see how the odds react with the reported release of the redacted Mueller report in the coming week.

Bernie Sanders, the current top Democrat in the standings, also reached a new high this week. His odds improved from 7.09X to 6.89X. He’s off to a much better start than in 2016. Here’s a numeric analysis of the difference between the two cycles for Sanders so far.

The hottest candidate remains Pete Buttigieg. Although he has not officially entered the race (will likely announce in South Bend on Sunday), one couldn’t avoid the Midwestern Mayor in the media in the past week. As Vanity Fair put it, he had “one hell of a week”.

Another week brought in another candidate for the Democrats. This week it was CA Rep Eric Swalwell. He has chosen gun control as his focus. The announcement didn’t have a big impact on his odds. He improved from 158.2X to 154.5X, which was enough to move him from 58th place to 50th place.

Here are the full odds:

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