Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Cuban 2020, Gabbard 2020, Hickenlooper 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Tump’s odds remain at all time high; Biden leads Trump in key states, pushing his odds to a new high; Buttigieg continue to breakout; Warren hottest name at expense of Sanders; Gabbard, Hickenlooper, Cuban see bounces

Donald Trump’s odds were flat to last week and remained at their all time high of 2.02X. The odds have now been at a new high or tied for a new high for the last 8 weeks.

After a one week decline, Joe Biden’s odds resumed their upward moves and reached another new high at 5.19X. They were at 5.61X the previous week and 5.57X two weeks ago, the all time high at that point. This as several polls show Biden would have a significant lead over Trump in head to head match-ups in key states like Michigan.

Pete Buttigieg continues to be the breakout of the election cycle. He improved on the week from 15.5X to 13.8X. He is below his all time high however reached near the end of April of 11.1X. He is currently in 5th place.

Just behind Buttigieg is the hottest recent name, Elizabeth Warren. Warren has been up for 7 straight weeks and improved this week from 21.5X to 20.3X. It’s clear that Sanders and Warren are fighting for the same voter as Sanders has been down those same 7 weeks. (Sanders has gone from 6.97X to 8.97 while Warren has gone from 32X to 20.3X)

Other names that showed life this week were Tulsi Gabbard (up from 56.3X to 53.3X, a 9 week high), John Hickenlooper (up from 145.3X to 125.6X, and from 28th place to 19th place, a 6 week high), and Mark Cuban (196.2X to 134.3X and 60th place to 23rd place). Cuban’s change is interesting as there was no recent news of him running and quite a few sites upgraded his odds from around 150X to around 70X)

Below is the list of the 65 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

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2020 Weekly Odds, Inslee 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds continue to reach new highs, despite recent increase in disapproval ratings; Warren continues gaining momentum in both polls and odds; Inslee gets top grade from Greenpeace, sees a jump in odds

Trump’s Odds continued their hot streak, as they have been either up or flat for the last 14 weeks. This week they improved from 2.04X to 2.02X. The recent increase has diverged from recent polls showing a drop in net favorability which dropped in the past 4 weeks by about 3% (from around -9.5% to -12.5%.

The only other top tier candidate to show an improvement this week was Elizabeth Warren. Her odds have seen a consistent improvement the last 6 weeks improving from 34.0X to the current 21.5X. She has been very active in her campaigning and has had the most detail behind her policies. That seems to be paying dividend as the polls are beginning to show movement in her direction.

Jay Inslee is considered the “Green” candidate, and not surprisingly, he got the top grade in Greanpeace’s grading of the top 20 candidates . His odds jumped this week from 165.6X to 151.9X. He remains an extreme long shot as he moved from 42nd place to 33rd (keep in mind there’s only 25 or so official candidates).

Below is the list of 61 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 609
2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Yang 2020

Trump and Biden continue hot streak as they distance themselves from the field; Sanders continues losing ground in third place; Beto’s attempt at a reboot appears to be unsuccessful

The trend of Trump and Biden reaching new highs is in its sixth week now.

Donald Trunp’s odds improved from last week’s high of 2.10X to 2.04X this week. His odds have now improved the last 13 weeks (over 90 days). They were are at 2.93X at that time. That is an improvement of over 40% over that time.

Joe Biden’s streak isn’t as long since it wasn’t known 13 weeks ago if he would even run. In half the time (last 6 weeks), he has improved from 10.7X to 5.57X, which is over a 90% improvement. The majority of thinking now is it’s Joe Biden’s nomination to lose.

7 out of the next 10 competitors saw a decrease in odds including the third place candidate, Bernie Sanders. He has now dropped for five straight weeks (basically the same time period as Biden has been up). Sanders dropped this week from 7.69X to 8.35X. He was at 6.74X when the streak started. This is his lowest in 12 weeks. The challenge for Sanders is beyond his base his unfavorability is one of the worst (41% fav 48% unfav), although that is still better than the President’s (38%/57%)

The coldest name has been Beto O’Rourke. He dropped this week from 24.4X to 27.6X. Beto has dropped for 9 straight weeks. He was at 8.9X and in 5th place then. He dropped this week to 8th place behind Andrew Yang. Beto tried to reboot his campaign this week with a CNN townhall but hat was very poorly watched.

Below is the list of 64 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 518