Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds continue to inch up setting new highs; Biden sees a small rebound after two weeks of large declines; Warren continues hot streak, setting a new high; Harris, Sanders, and Buttigieg see drops

Donald Trump’s odds continued to inch up moving from 1.99X to 1.98X, another all time high. This slow rise started at the end of May when he was at 2.04X. His odds vs. the top 5 Democrats also improved a bit as they increased to 48.8% from 48.7% as the 5 Dems as a group stayed flat at 1.89X.

Joe Biden ended his two week post debate decline. His odds jumped to their highest post debate, at 8.19X compared to last week’s 8.66X. He was at 6.81X and second place prior to the debate. Even with the rise, and Kamala Harris’ drop this week (from 5.57X to 5.88X), Biden remained in 3rd place. Biden and Harris will get a chance at round 2 as they are once again matched up in the second debate.

Along with Harris, Elizabeth Warren was the other winner from the debates. She had momentum prior to it, and has maintained that momentum. Her odds improved this week from 9.45X to 8.88X. This is an all time high for her. Warren is known to do the behind the scenes work, whether it be putting out detailed policy, or doing the groundwork needed to win over voters, which she seems to have done for the pivotal Iowa caucus.

Trump, Biden, and Warren were the only three candidates in the top 10 to improve. Bernie Sanders continued to drop coming in at 15.6X. He has now dropped for 13 straight weeks and is at his lowest point in 5 months. Pete Buttigieg has now dropped 4 straight weeks at 16.6X, his lowest in 16 weeks.

Here are the candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

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2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Harris 2020, Steyer 2020, Trump 2020

Donald Trump’s Odds set another new high; Kamala’s momentum continues; Steyer reenters race; Cory Booker slowly improving under the radar

Donald Trump’s Odds set a new high with a small improvement over prior week. The odds improved from 2.00X last week to 1.99X this week. The odds have been in a tight range of 1.99X to 2.04X the last 8 weeks. Interestingly (due to Harris’ improvement), his odds vs. the top 5 Democrats dipped to 48.7% compared to last week’s 49.0%. The combined odds of the top 5 Democrats improved from 1.92X to 1.89X.

Since the first Democratic Debate, Kamala Harris has been the hottest name and she continued that trend this week. Her odds improved from 6.33X to 5.57X, another new high for her (and slightly behind the high for the Democrats by Joe Biden of 5.19X at the beginning of June). She was at 13.5X prior to the debates.

Tom Steyer threw his name back into the race. His odds saw a large increase from 260X to 193X. That took him up from 76th place to 37th place. Prior to exiting in April, he was in 28th place and at 129X. His peak was at 82X in November 2018.

The one name flying under the radar that has been improving the last few weeks is Cory Booker. He has improved in each of the last 4 weeks and is now at 62.3X and 10th place overall. The 62.3X is the highest he has been in 8 weeks. Keep an eye on SC, an early primary state, for Booker. He is getting endorsements from the state.

Here are the candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 607
2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Castro 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump reaches new high; Harris leapfrogs Biden; Warren widens gap over Sanders; Julian Castro continues to have momentum

Donald Trump’s odds reached a new high this week as they are now at an even 2.00X surpassing the previous high of 2.02X set 4 weeks ago. We started tracking his odds compared to the next 5 Democrats combined. His implied likelihood increased from 48.1% last week to 49.0% as the top 5 Democrats decreased from a combined 1.88X to 1.92X.

Kamala Harris continued with her momentum coming out of the first debate as she improved from 7.53X to 6.33X. That combined with Biden’s continued struggles allowed her to jump over the VP to be the leading Democratic candidate as far the odds are concerned. The odds are just reflecting the post debate polls.

The other pair that swapped positions last week continued their recent trend. Warren continued to improve moving from from 9.7X to 9.4X, putting her in striking distance of Biden. These are all new highs for Warren. Bernie Sanders continues to lose momentum dropping from 12.8X to 14.0X. These are his lowest odds since the middle of February.

The under the radar candidate of the moment seems to be Julian Castro. He had one of the top debate performances and polls show it. His odds improved this week from 115.1X to 110.6X allowing him to jump to 14th place. He has improved the last 5 weeks. At that time he was in 30th place at 147.7X.

Here are the candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 623