Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Harris 2020, ORourke 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

No change in Trump’s Odds; Warren drops for 3rd week in a row as momentum for Buttigieg and Sanders continues; One time leaders struggle as Beto drops out and Kamala conserves cash

Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week at 2.25X. They have been very resilient the last 4 weeks showing no impact from a possible impeachment. The odds were at 2.24X three weeks ago. Trump’s odds vs. the top 5 Democrats improved slightly from 44.1% to 44.2% as their combined odds dropped from 1.77X to 1.78X driven by Elizabeth Warren.

Warren’s odds dropped for a third straight week. Her odds on the week came in at 4.17X, down from last week’s 3.82X and 3.32X in mid October. These are her lowest odds in 6 weeks. Her odds are following the same trend as other front-runners before her. She is the fifth Democratic leader in just 2019 (Kamala Harris twice, Biden, and Sanders)

The two movers up this week are Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg.

Sanders improved from 14.3X to 12.8X. His odds have rebounded from the heart attack lows of 22.1X four weeks ago. Sanders seems to have the highest credibility among young liberals, and AOC campaigning in Iowa for him will only reinforce that.

Pete Buttigieg seems to be benefiting with his pitch as the only Democratic centrist with any kind of money left. Biden might be leading, but he may be in a cash crunch. Buttigieg’s odds improved from 16.4X to 14.3X. These are his best odds since June. He has now improved in 5 straight weeks.

Two once promising candidates continued to see their odds drop.

Beto O’Rourke dropped out on Friday, and his odds tanked moving from 138X to 212X. O’Rourke peaked around Christmas of 2018 when his odds were around 7.7X. He was briefly the Democratic leader for three weeks in December 2018.

Kamala Harris also once held the Democratic lead, and has seen her odds drop. Her odds dropped from 57.7X to 61.9X as word came out she had cut her staff to conserve cash. This is yet another odds low for her. She led the Democratic field as recently as end of July.

Here are the odds for all candidates with better than 250X odds and the trend of the top candidates:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Gabbard 2020, Harris 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds see little change; Warren’s odds losing momentum, as Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg improve; Gabbard’s week in the headlines helps her odds

Another week of little change for Trump’s reelection odds, which given the impeachment inquiry headlines, is rather remarkable. The odds are currently at 2.25X, slightly below last week’s 2.24X. Taking a step back, these are his lowest odds since mid April, but much better than his cycle low of 3.46X in September 2017. The odds for the top 5 Democrats remained flat at 1.77X, meaning Trump’s odds against them dropped slightly from 44.2% to 44.1%.

The big move in odds that started a bit last week, and grew this week, seems to be a reversal of a long positive trend for Warren. Her odds had seen continuous improvement for 6 months, but have now been lower for two straight weeks. This week, the odds dropped from 3.37X to 3.82X, her lowest in 5 weeks. It seems much of the fire that Biden has been taking has now turned towards Warren given her front-runner status.

Speaking of Biden, a new poll released this week showed him well ahead of the field. It seems he is picking up voters as the secondary candidates decline. His odds improved from 8.20X to 7.28X, his highest in 5 weeks.

Bernie Sanders continued to improve as he touts AOC’s endorsement. His odds improved from 16.0X to 14.3X, his best in 4 weeks.

Big business seems to be warming up to Buttigieg. His odds jumped from 19.4X to 16.4X. These are his best odds in over 100 days.

Tulsi Gabbard has had an eventful week , including taking on Clinton, announcing she is not running for reelection for Congress, and going on Fox News to discuss her displeasure with closed door Democratic hearings. Her odds shot up from 88.7X to 58.9X, a 50% increase and her highest in 9 weeks. She is basically now tied with once Democratic favorite and now fallen star Kamala Harris who dropped from 46.5X to 57.7X. This is another all time low for Harris.

Here are the odds for candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the leaders

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Romney 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds flat to last week; Winners from 4th debate include Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Warren; Sanders “resets” campaign and gets AOC endorsement; Romney and Bloomberg with big improvements

Donald Trump’s odds stayed flat to last week at 2.24X, about 15% lower than the 1.90X high set beginning of August. His odds against the top 5 Democrats dropped to 43.9% from 44.8%. This as a result of the top 5 Democrats improving their combined odds from 1.81X to 1.75X.

The Democrats had their 4th debate and based on the odds here’s the big winners:

Here are how to odds moved this week for all who were involved in the debate:

Hillary Clinton’s streak of 9 straight weeks of improvements finally came to an end as she dropped from 25.2X to 31.5X. That is still the highest of any non candidate.

Mitt Romney saw another jump in odds as he stepped up his talk against Trump’s Syria policy. The odds moved from 98.0X to 80.6X, his highest since January.

Michael Bloomberg’s odds nearly doubled from 197.4X to 107.7X as reports came out he is looking into possibly entering if Biden falters. These are his highest odds since May.

Here are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the top candidates

For Updates follow us on Twitter

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