Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Gabbard 2020, Harris 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Pundit opinion of Warren and Biden debate performance differs from change in odds as Warren sees big drop and Biden jumps back into lead; Buttigieg’s momentum continues while Klobuchar sees biggest jump; Trump’s odds see small bump, first in nine weeks

Donald Trumps’ odds saw their first improvement in nine weeks, inching up from 2.29X to 2.28X. These odds are still slightly lower than two weeks ago at 2.27X and around 20% from the all time high of 1.90X achieved in August. His odds against the top 5 Democrats improved by a wider margin from 44.3% to 45.5%. The top 5 Democrats combined dropped from 1.82X to 1.90X as a result of a drop in Warren’s odds.

The fifth Democratic debate took place and there is a disagreement between what the pundits think and what the odds show when it comes to Warren and Biden. Many media outlets, like Vox , CNN, and NYT have Warren outperforming Biden. The odds on the other hand, show a sharp drop for Warren. Her odds decreased from 5.32X to 7.32X, over a 25% drop. This is her lowest since the middle of August. Although she had the biggest drop in this debate, Warren is still up the most since the beginning of the debates.

Joe Biden’s odds saw a small improvement, faring much better than what the media thought of him. His odds improved from 7.22X to 6.88X. This small increase along with Warren’s fall was enough to bump him back up to the favorite. These are his best odds since the middle of September.

There seems to be two big winners from the debate. Pete Buttigieg came out of the debate with his recent momentum intact. He improved from 10.3X to 8.9X, his second all time high in a row.

The biggest winner, at least from an improvement in odds perspective, was Amy Klobuchar. Her odds rose 50% from 94.6X to 62.8X. She jumped over Gabbard and Harris into 11th place overall.

Here are the big winner and losers from this debate as well as since the start of debate season:

Here are the odds of candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot as well as a trend of the top candidates:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Patrick 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds see another small drop; Warren’s cold streak reaches 5, as Buttigieg reaches new high and Sanders rebounds to pre heart attack odds; Patrick enters while Clinton won’t rule out a run

Donald Trump’s odds continued a recent trend of slow declines. They dropped from 2.27X to 2.29X. They have either been flat or have dropped for eight straight weeks when the odds were at 2.02X. Despite the drop, Trump’s odds against the top five Democrats actually increased to 44.1% from 43.4%, as their combined odds dropped from 1.75X to 1.80X. This a result of increases in candidates outside of the top five.

Elizabeth Warren continued her cold streak of now 5 weeks. Her odds dropped from 4.89X to 5.32X. This is her lowest since the beginning of September. Her odds are still 35% higher than Biden’s, although they were more than double just 5 weeks ago.

The two big winners from Warren’s drop continue to be Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. Buttigieg improved from 11.4X to 10.3X. This is yet another high, and he has improved for seven straight weeks. He was at 31.1X at the start of the streak, and has nearly tripled his odds over that span. One poll this week showed Buttigieg to be at the top of Iowa.

Bernie Sanders improved from 12.1X to 11.2X. He has now improved the last 5 weeks (since his heart attack) from 22.1X (doubling his odds). These are his highest odds in nine weeks.

There was some big movement outside of the top 5 Democrats this week:

One week after skyrocketing, Michael Bloomberg’s odds saw a pullback, dropping from 16.1X to 23.8X. This is still way above where he was two weeks ago at 88.4X. He still has not made a decision on whether he is running, but that is likely days away according to Axios.

Hillary Clinton’s odds improved from 29.2X to 26.0X as she refuses to rule out running.

Deval Patrick made it official and announced he is running. His odds shot up from 260.7X to 112.6X, his highest in over 6 months, putting him in 15th overall, putting him just behind Klobuchar and Harris but ahead of Booker and Castro. It will be interesting to see who he hurts, if he starts gaining traction. One the one hand he is more moderate and may pull from a Buttigieg or Bloomberg. On the other hand he is well known in the northeast which may take primary votes from the likes of Warren.

Below are the odds of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot as well as the trend of the top candidates:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trumps odds continue slow decline, still more than twice as high as next competitor; Warren’s cold streak reaches 4 weeks; Buttigieg passes an improving Sanders; Bloomberg skyrockets to 6th place after his filing for Alabama primary sparks speculation of a run

Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline, dropping from 2.25X to 2.27X. These are his lowest odds in over 6 months (since mid April). He is still more than twice as high as Warren, his closest competitor. His odds against the top 5 Democrats saw a more dramatic drop (from 45.3% to 44.7%) as their combined odds improved from 1.86X to 1.75X.

Elizabeth Warren continued her recent trend of drops. She was down from 4.17X to 4.89X. She has now dropped for four straight weeks and is at an 8 weeks low. Although there isn’t any direct news that would hurt her candidacy, more moderate alternatives like Buttigieg and Bloomberg are eating into her grip on the Democratic nomination.

Pete Buttigieg seems to have taken the torch from Warren in recent weeks. It’s no coincidence that his hot streak started at the same time as the end of Warren’s. His odds have improved from last week’s 14.3X to 11.4X. He has nearly tripled his odds from 7 weeks ago (31.1X). Buttigieg has been gaining ground in Iowa especially at the expense of Biden. He jumped Sanders in the odds this week, despite the improvement from Sanders (12.8X to 12.1X).

Michael Bloomberg has not officially entered, but he did file for the Alabama primary (Alabama has an early deadline). He is considering jumping in as he sees Biden’s chances dropping. There is a lot of speculation on a potential path to the nomination. Even without his formal entry, Bloomberg’s odds jumped to take him from 12th place to 6th place overall as they moved from 88.4X to 16.1X, his all time high.

Here are the odds for candidates with a better than 250X to 1 shot and a trend of the top candidates:

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