Category Archives: 2020 Weekly Odds

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Clinton 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s Odds jump to 16 week high; Bernie’s momentum continues, as he jumps Buttigieg for second place among Democrats; Clinton speculation helps push her odds to a 2 1/2 year high; Biden’s odds continue slow improvement, now at a 3 months high

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Donald Trump’s odds saw a significant jump for the second straight week, this time from 2.14X to 2.00X. These are his best odds since the end of August. Although recent headlines have been around impeachment, history has shown a strong economy makes it nearly impossible to unseat an incumbent, and recent economic numbers have erased speculation of a recession. The top 5 Democrats saw a drop from 1.92X to 1.99X meaning it’s now almost a tossup between them and Trump.

For the second straight week Bernie Sanders seems to have the momentum for the Democrats. His odds rose from 10.1X to 9.2X. These are his best odds in 6 months. Last week he jumped Warren. This week he passed Buttigieg. Some may underestimate him, but others are beginning to take notice.

The other Democratic candidate to jump this week is Hillary Clinton as buzz that she may run continued. This week it was comments by former Bill Clinton adviser Dick Morris. Her odds improved from 29.4X to 24.3X. These are her highest odds in over 2 1/2 years.

Biden was able to stay fairly flat up from 6.95X to 6.73X. He’s been quietly reasserting his lead. This is now a 14 week high for him.

All other top Democratic candidates saw a drop with Buttigieg dropping from 9.0X to 10.6X, a five week low. Warren from 10.2X to 11.4X, a 6 months low. Bloomberg from 14.8X to 15.8X, a 3 week low.

Here is the list of candidates with better than a 200 to 1 shot and a recent trend of the top candidates:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds at nine week high on the back of increased impeachment driven fundraising; Is Buttigieg passing the momentum to Sanders; Warren’s slide continues; Klobuchar with sustained under the radar improvement

Donald Trump’s saw a fairly significant jump from 2.27X to 2.14X. Prior to this he had been in a range from 2.20X to 2.29X for the last nine weeks. This is the highest his odds have been since the end of September. His campaign seems to be taking advantage of fundraising from his base as a result of the continued impeachment activity. His odds against the top 5 Democrats improved from 45.6% to 47.4% as their combined odds dropped from 1.90X to 1.92X.

The hottest name for the Democrats from June to mid October was Elizabeth Warren. Pete Buttigieg then took over and the momentum. Could Bernie Sanders be next? Sanders saw his odds improve from 10.5X to 10.1X. Although that is not a big jump, it is significant when put in context. He was the only one of the top 5 Democrats to improve on the week and combined with Warren’s continued slipping, he was able to pass her into 4th place overall. Although the polls don’t quite reflect this reality, his positioning in early states may lead to momentum there that will carry to the national polls.

Elizabeth Warren’s odds kept slipping, this week from 9.5X to 10.2X. These are her lowest odds in nearly 6 months. Just four weeks ago, Warren was the leader for the Democrats. She has since fallen behind Biden, Buttigieg, and now Sanders.

One candidate that has been gaining consistent momentum under the radar is Amy Klobuchar. Her odds improved this week from 62.0X to 60.8X. She has improved in 8 of the last 9 weeks when she was at 141X when she was in 16th place overall. She is now in 11th place overall.

We are now down to only 18 candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot (with only 11 of them officially in). Here is the list:

Here is a trend of the top candidates:

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2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Obama 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Warren 2020

Trump’s odds continue in tight range; Bloomberg’s odds nearly double as he outspends opponents in Super Tuesday states; Warren continues to decline, gets passed by Buttigieg; Speculation by FoxNews leads to jump in Michelle Obama’s odds

Donald Trump’s odds saw a small improvement up from 2.28X to 2.27X. That is the second straight small increase. His odds have been in a range of 2.24X to 2.29X over the last 8 weeks. His odds against the top 5 Democrats ticked up a bit from 45.5% to 45.6% as their combined odds stayed flat at 1.90X.

The biggest move up was from Michael Bloomberg as he nearly double his odds from 27.7X to 14.7X. This is a brand new high for him and puts him in 6th place overall. Bloomberg’s money allows him not to have to gain momentum by winning early, delegate poor states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Instead he is focusing on outspending his opponents for Super Tuesdays.

Elizabeth Warren continued her nose dive, dropping this week from 7.32X to 9.53X. This is her lowest since the end of July. Among other things, she seems to have lost the momentum in Iowa to Pete Buttigieg. With this recent slip she was passed by Buttigieg who improved from 8.88X to 8.84X for third place overall. Her gap with Bernie Sanders has tightened. Sanders came in this week flat to last week at 10.5X.

Michelle Obama’s odds shot up as Fox News’ Tucker Carlson predicted she will be the Democratic nominee. Her odds this week were at 83X up from 123X the prior week. These are her highest odds since March and put her in 14th place overall (11th place for the Democrats)

Here are the odds for candidates with a better than 200 to 1 shot and a trend of the leaders:

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