Donald Trump had a good three week run where he cut into Hillary Clinton’s lead from by 3 points from 7 to 4. The lead seems to have stabilized at around 4% the last few days. The polls have become less consistent however with two polls showing Clinton +7 and another poll showing Trump +1.
Here is a trend of the polls:
Here are the last 10 polls:
Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes. It’s about the electoral college. Please see previous posts or click below for updated state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate. The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)
Donald Trump made up ground in several state polls over the last few days, but that was not enough to change the electoral forecast. Here are the 5 polls since the last update:
2 PA polls (Clinton +3 and Clinton +8) got Trump closer to Clinton, but not enough to swing the state away from likely D. All three previous polls were Clinton +9.
MI Poll Clinton +5 got Trump closer in that state and was enough to swing it from solid D to likely D. The two previous polls were Clinton +11 and Clinton +7.
OH Poll was a tie. Combined with the previous two polls (Clinton +6 and Clinton +4) kept the state as lean D. Another tie would swing the state to a tossup.
AZ was the only state poll to swing in Clinton’s direction. Poll came in at Clinton +1. The previous polls were Trump +2 and Trump +7. This was enough to swing the state from likely R to lean R.
The above polls kept the forecast at 328-210, as Trump’s electoral gain in Michigan was offset by Clinton’s gain in AZ.
Here is the list of current tossups:
GA
IA
NC
NV
Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:
CO
FL
NH
OH
PA
VA
WI
The above are the states Trump needs to swing back in order to win.
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Hillary Clinton’s lead topped at 6.8% on 8/6. Donald Trump has been slowly inching forward ever since. The lead is now down to 4%, the lowest it has been since the wild swing post DNC where the polls swung nearly 5% in the span of 5 days.
The gap may be stabilizing around this 4% (straight average of last 10 polls combined is 4.1% with 6 of them 3%-5%).
Here is a trend of the polls:
Here are the last 10 polls:
Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes. It’s about the electoral college. Please see previous posts or click below for updated state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate. The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)
