For the fourth straight week, Donald Trump continued gaining ground on Hillary Clinton.  As of 9/3 he is only 2.5% back closing what was a 7% gap on 8/6.  He leads in two of the last 5 polls with one other poll showing a tie.

Here is a trend of the polls:

Here are the last 10 polls:

Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes.  It’s about the electoral college.  Please see previous posts or click below for updated  state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Methodology:

• Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
• Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
• Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
• Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
• For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate.  The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)

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After holding steady for about a week, Donald Trump has resumed closing the gap on Hillary Clinton in the electoral forecast.  Clinton’s lead remains significant.

The four polls impacting the forecast:

• WI Poll Clinton +5 moves state from solid D to likely D
• 2 VA Polls (Clinton +2 and Clinton +1) initially move state from solid D to likely D and then from likely D to lean D
• NH poll moves state from likely D to solid D

The above polls moved the forecast from 328-210 to the current 325-213.  The 112 point lead is Clinton’s smallest since she led by 104 on August 12.

Here are the polls that did not move the forecast:

• IA Poll Trump +5 confirms state as tossup
• WV Poll Trump +18 confirms state as solid R
• PA Poll Clinton +5 confirms state as likely D
• AZ poll Trump +4 confirms state as lean R
• NY Poll Clinton +18 confirms state as solid D
• NC Poll Trump +2 confirms state as tossup

Here is the list of current tossups:

• GA
• IA
• NC
• NV

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

• CO
• FL
• NH
• OH
• PA
• VA
• WI

The above are the states Trump needs to swing back in order to win.

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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Donald Trump has been gaining ground in the national polls the last four weeks.  This has finally began translating into some ground in both in the electoral forecast and the betting odds.  This week he gained 3.2% up to 26.1%, his highest since the end of July.  Hillary Clinton still has a big advantage at 69.0%.

Here is a full list of the odds:

Looking into the odds at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government increased.

The Republicans also improved the odds of winning the House and the Senate.  Republican odds of winning the House is now at 86.6% up from 84.7% the previous week.  The odds of them winning the Senate improved from 23.2% to 25.2%.  The Democrats still have the higher odds at 53.4% down from 55.9%.  Keep in mind there is a high likelihood the Senate is split (21.4%).  If that were to happen, the VP would break any ties as far as voting.

The odds of the Republicans winning all three increased as well to 25.5%, almost the same as the odds of Trump winning the presidency.  This just shows most believe a Trump victory virtually guarantees the Republicans keeping the House and Senate.  The odds of the Democrats winning all three slipped from 18.5% to 16%, as they are unlikely to win the House.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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