Nationally, in Poll after poll for the last month, Donald Trump has been making up ground.  Hillary Clinton’s lead seems to have peaked on 8/6 at 6.8%, and ever since, Trump has made up ground on a daily basis in the poll of polls, bottoming out on 9/5 at 2.1%. Based on a small sample for the days after, Clinton has started to rebound.  Her lead for 9/7 (subject to change as more polls are released) is at 2.6%.  Clinton has led each of the last 5 national polls after Trump won 2 of the previous 5.

Here is a trend of the polls:

Here are the last 10 polls:

Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes.  It’s about the electoral college.  Please see previous posts or click below for updated  state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Methodology:

• Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
• Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
• Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
• Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
• For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate.  The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)

Views – 752

Donald Trump’s recent gains in battleground states are getting reflected in the odds.  For the third straight weeks, Trump has improved his odds.  He is up this week from 26.1% to 30.9%.  This is his highest since end of July when he was at 33.7%.  That was also his all time high.

Hillary Clinton continues to have more than a two to one margin in odds however at 63.9%.

Here is a full list of the odds:

Looking into the odds at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government increased to its highest since tracking began five weeks ago.

For the House, the Republicans increased their odds of retaining it from 86.6% to 87.1%.  Those odds have increased for the last three weeks.

The Democrat’s odds of winning the Senate decreased from 53.4% to 53.1%.   That was driven by the Republican odds increasing from 25.2% to 25.8%.  The odds of a split Senate where the VP breaks a tie decreased to 21.1% from 21.4%.

Oddly enough, the Republican gains for the Presidency, House, and Senate did NOT result in improved odds of winning all three at once.  Those odds decreased from 25.5% to 24.5%.  This may be a reflection of voters being more open to splitting their vote across parties.   The odds of the Democrats winning all three decreased once again this time from 16% to 14%.  That is the lowest since tracking started.  As a result the odds of a split government increased to 61.5%.

Here is a trend of those odds:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 695

Updated Electoral Forecast:  Trump continues to cut into Clinton’s large lead with Florida moving to tossup

Although Donald Trump has been gaining ground in national polls for over a month, it has taken longer for the electoral picture to catch up (given Trump was so far behind in some of the states).  Over the last two weeks, he has slowly made up ground on Hillary Clinton’s large lead due to movement in pivotal states.

There were 12 polls released since the last update with 7 impacting the forecast:

• The biggest impact came from a FL poll with Trump +1.  That swung the state from a lean D to tossup
• AZ Poll Clinton +1 moves state from lean R to tossup
• NJ Poll Clinton +4 moves state from likely D to lean D
• CT Poll Clinton +15 moves state from likely D to solid D
• RI Poll Clinton +3 moves state from solid D to likely D
• NH Poll Clinton +5 moves state from solid D to likely D
• MO Poll Trump +9 moves state from lean R to likely R

The above polls moved the forecast from 325-213 to the current 316-222.  The 94 point lead is Clinton’s smallest since the beginning of August.

Here are the polls that did not move the forecast:

• MA poll Clinton +17 confirms state as solid D
• VT Poll Clinton +21 confirms state as solid D
• ME Poll Clinton +9 confirms state as solid D
• MD survey Clinton +29 confirms state as solid D
• ID Poll Trump +21 confirms state as solid R

Here is the list of current tossups:

• AZ
• FL
• GA
• IA
• NC
• NV

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

• CO
• NH
• OH
• PA
• VA
• WI

The above are the states Trump needs to swing back in order to win.

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 678