Trump’s continued momentum in the last month has now resulted in major gains in some of the major battleground states like OH, GA, and IA.

25 polls were released since the last update with 8 having an impact on the forecast

• 2 GA Polls (Trump +6 and +4) swung the traditionally Republican state back to Republicans.  It moved from tossup all the way to liekly R.
• 3 OH Polls (Trump +5, +5, +3) moved the important battleground state from tossup all the way to likely R
• IA poll (Trump +8) moved the state from tossup to lean R
• CO poll (Trump +4) moves state from likely D to lean D
• ME poll (Clinton +3) moves state from solid D to likely D

The above polls moved the forecast from 311-227  all the way to the current 294-244.  The 50 point lead is Clinton’s smallest since the middle of July 44 point lead (her lowest this campaign).

Here are the polls that did not move the forecast:

• AR Poll Trump +28 confirms state as solid R
• TX Poll Trump +7 confirms state as solid R
• NC Poll tie confirms state as tossup
• 2 VA Polls (Clinton +3 +6) confirm  lean D
• MO poll Trump +13 confirms state as likely R
• MI Poll Clinton +3 confirms state as likely D
• KS Poll Trump +12 confirms state  solid R
• SC Poll Trump +15 confirms state as likely R
• MA Poll Clinton +25 confirms states as solid D
• NV Poll Trump +2 confirms state as tossup
• FL Poll Trump +3 confirms state as tossup
• CA Poll Clinton +25 confirms state as solid D
• TX Poll Trump +6 confirms state as solid R
• UT Poll Trump +15 confirms state as solid R
• MI Poll Clinton +6 confirms state as likely D
• FL Poll Trump +4 confirms state as tossup

Here is the list of current tossups:

• AZ
• FL
• NC
• NV

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

• CO
• NH
• PA
• VA
• WI

The above are the states Trump needs to swing back in order to win.

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

• Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
• Click here for running list of forecast changes
• Click here for results from last 5 elections
• Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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For the last month, Donald Trump had been narrowing Clinton’s lead in the polls.  That gain seemed to have stopped almost 10 days ago right at 2.1%.  In fact Clinton began gaining momentum and extending her lead to 2.7%, until the weekend.  Her poll numbers began dropping, coinciding with reports about her having pneumonia.  Since then Trump has been able to close the gap to 2.0%, the lowest since July 28th.  Despite the small margin, Clinton still led in 8 out of the last 10 polls, with two of them being ties.  It will be interesting to see if she is able to widen the gap as she gets back on the campaign trail.

Here is a trend of the polls:

Here are the last 10 polls:

Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes.  It’s about the electoral college.  Please see previous posts or click below for updated  state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Methodology:

• Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
• Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
• Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
• Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
• For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate.  The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)

Views – 638

Over the last 10 days, Donald Trump has made some significant gains in Hillary Clinton’s large lead.

There were 14 polls released since the last update with 5 impacting the forecast:

• The biggest impact came from two OH polls (Trump +4, Clinton +7) which moved state from lean D to tossup
• NH Poll Clinton +2 moves state from likely D to lean D
• OR Poll Clinton +13 moves state from lean D to likely D
• CO Poll Clinton +5 moves state from solid D to likely D

The above polls moved the forecast from 316-222 to the current 311-227.  The 84 point lead is Clinton’s smallest since the beginning of August.

Here are the polls that did not move the forecast:

• 2 FL polls (Clinton +2, tie) confirm state as tossup
• 2 NC Polls (Clinton +4, Trump +3) confirm state as tossup
• GA Poll Trump +2 confirms state as tossup
• AZ Poll Trump +2 confirms state as tossup
• NV Poll Trump +1 confirms state as tossup
• IN Poll Trump +7 confirms state as solid R
• PA Poll Clinton +5 confirms state as likely D

Here is the list of current tossups:

• AZ
• FL
• GA
• IA
• NC
• NV
• OH

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

• CO
• NH
• PA
• VA
• WI

The above are the states Trump needs to swing back in order to win.

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 693