Hillary Clinton’s odds showed a small rebound of 2.5% to 59.0%.  This rebound was driven by the decline in fears of her dropping out and it came at the expense of the odds of Joe Biden (3.1% to 2.3%), Bernie Sanders (2.6% to 2.0%), and Tim Kaine (1.4% to 0.7%).

Donald Trump’s odds remained relatively flat (34.5% vs. 34.7%). He is behind Clinton 24.5%, which is the second lowest gap of the race, with the smallest being last week at 21.8%.

Here is the full list of odds:

Looking at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government increased as odds of a Republican controlled government decreased.

The Republicans have always had a high probability of keeping the House took a slight dip from last week’s election season high of 90.0% to 88.6%, still the second highest it has been.

That was not the case as far as the Republican odds of winning the Senate. Republican Senate odds improved for the fourth week in a row, this time from 26.5% to 38.5%, a new high.  The Democrats still have higher odds at 40.8%, but that was down from 42.0% the prior week.  The odds of a 50/50 split dropped from 21.5% to 20.6%.

The  decrease in Republican odds of  taking Congress decreased the odds of a Republican controlled government to 28% from 31%.  That is still the second highest % this year.  The Democrat odds saw a slight increase to 12.5%, basically the odds of them winning the Congress.  The odds of a split government increased to 59.5%.

Here is a trend of those odds:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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Recent national polls have been very volatile.  There was a time where all polls pointed in the same direction and were within a few points of each other.  That is no longer the case.  A perfect example is the last four national polls released: Two show Clinton +6, one Trump +5 and one Trump +2.  How can polls taken within the same week be 11 points apart?

That said most polls are pointing to Clinton rebounding after bottoming around her episode with pneumonia.  Although she is ahead in only 6 of the last 10 polls, 4 of those polls have her up by 5 or 6 points. Trump wins three polls by an average of 3 points.

Her lead seems to have bottomed on September 14th at 1.3%. That just so happens to be the last day she was off the campaign trail due to her health.  Since then she has slowly regained momentum to get to her current 3% lead.

Here is a trend of the polls:

Here are the last 10 polls:

Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes.  It’s about the electoral college.  Please see previous posts or click below for updated  state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Methodology:

• Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
• Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
• Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
• Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
• For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate.  The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)

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12 Polls were released in the last couple of days with seven of them impacting the forecast.  Many of these polls showed Donald Trump making up further ground which tightened the forecast further.

Here are the polls that had an impact on the forecast:

• 3 NC Polls (Trump +1, +2, +5) moved the state from a tossup to lean R
• Maine Poll tie moved state from likely D to lean D (2 previous polls Clinton +9, +3)
• 2 NV Polls both Trump +3 moves state from tossup to lean R
• NH Poll Clinton +9 moves state from lean D to likely D

The above moved the forecast from the previous 294-244 to the current 286-252.  The 34 point lead is Clinton’s smallest lead to date and puts Trump within striking distance of her.

Here are the other polls:

• OH Poll Trump +5 confirms state as likely R
• WI Poll Clinton +3 confirms state as likely D
• FL Poll Clinton +5 confirms state as tossup (Trump ahead in previous polls)
• CA Poll Clinton +17 confirms state as solid D
• NY Poll Clinton +21 confirms state as solid D

Here is the list of current tossups:

• AZ
• FL

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

• CO
• NH
• PA
• VA
• WI

Trump has began to assert himself in other thought to be tossups including:

• OH
• IA
• NC
• NV

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

• Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
• Click here for running list of forecast changes
• Click here for results from last 5 elections
• Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 612