21 Polls were released in the last three days with 14 of them impacting the forecast. Both Trump and Clinton made gains in battleground states with a slight overall advantage to Clinton.
Here are the polls that had an impact on the forecast:
2 NC Polls both Clinton +1 moved state from lean R to tossup
IA Poll tie moves state from likely R to lean R
2 VA Polls Clinton +8, +6 move state from likely D to solid D
4 PA Polls (Clinton +2, +1, +2, +3) move state from likely D to lean D
MO Poll Trump +9 moves state from likely R to solid R
OH Poll Trump +1 moves state from likely R to lean R
3 CO Polls (Trump +1, +1, Clinton +1) moves state from lean R to tossup
The above moved the forecast from the previous 284-254 to the current 289-249. This is the first gain Clinton has made in the electoral forecast in nearly a month when she led by 144 points on 8/23.
Here are the other polls:
NY Poll Clinton +21 confirms state as solid D
MA Poll Clinton +13 confirms state as solid D
LA Poll Trump +10 confirms state as solid R
MN Poll Clinton +7 confirms state as likely D
FL Poll Clinton +3 confirms state as tossup
UT Poll Trump +9 confirms state as solid R
ME Poll Clinton +3 confirms state as lean D
Here is the list of current tossups:
AZ
CO
FL
NC
Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:
NH
PA
VA
WI
Trump has asserted himself in other thought to be tossups including:
OH
IA
NV
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Over the last two months there have been two major moves in the polls: Clinton’s meteoric rise coming from behind to being up by nearly 7% in the span of a week post DNC in late July and Trump’s consistent gains throughout August and September that peaked with Clinton’s pneumonia episode.
Since then there have been to micro-trends amidst volatile polls. Originally it appeared Clinton was gaining back her momentum, improving her 1.3% lead to 3.1% in the span of a week. That small trend reversed and Trump seems to be gaining ground over the last 5 days and is now only 1.3% back again. Trump was last this close on 7/28 which is when Clinton began gaining her post DNC jump. It will be interesting to see whether this first debate causes a jolt to get us out of this 1%-3% Clinton lead.
Here is a trend of the polls:
Here are the last 10 polls:
Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes. It’s about the electoral college. Please see previous posts or click below for updated state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate. The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)
16 Polls were released in the last three days with three of them impacting the forecast. Trump’s gains on Clinton have slowed down as there are fewer battleground states for him to grab.
Here are the polls that had an impact on the forecast:
IA Poll Trump +7 moves state from lean R to likely R
VA Poll Clinton +7 moves state from lean D to likely D
PA Poll Clinton +2 moves state from likely D to lean D
The above moved the forecast from the previous 286-252 to the current 284-254. The 30 point lead is Clinton’s smallest lead to date and inches Trump within striking distance on the eve of the first debate.
Here are the other polls:
3 GA Polls Trump +4, +6, +7 confirm state as likely R
AR Poll Trump +21 confirms state as solid R
CA Poll Clinton +16 confirms state as solid D
MD Poll Clinton +33 confirms state as solid R
LA Trump +16 confirms state as solid R
IL Clinton +6 confirms state as solid D
WI Poll Clinton +7 confirms state as likely D
NC Poll tie confirms state as lean R
FL Poll Trump +1 confirms state as tossup
2 CO Polls Clinton +7, +2 confirm state as lean D
Here is the list of current tossups:
AZ
FL
Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:
CO
NH
PA
VA
WI
Trump has asserted himself in other thought to be tossups including:
OH
IA
NC
NV
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
