Hillary Clinton’s lead increased for 6 days after the debate, increasing from 2.0% to 4.0% by 10/1.  Since then, Donald Trump has been cutting her lead day by day down to 2.5% by Thursday 10/6.  This is one day prior to the latest controversy with old tapes of Trump  talking about women.  The next poll of polls will have that impact.

Here is a trend of the polls:

Here are the last 10 polls:

Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes.  It’s about the electoral college.  Please see previous posts or click below for updated  state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Methodology:

• Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
• Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
• Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
• Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
• For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate.  The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)

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Hillary Clinton continued to show momentum improving from 65.3% to 69.2%. These are the highest odds she has had in 6 weeks.  Her all time high was 8 weeks ago at 72.8%.  Donald Trump dropped from 30.1% to 26.7%.   This is his third decline in a row after peaking at 34.7% three weeks ago.

Here is the full list of odds:

Looking at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government reached a new high for the second straight week, as the Republican odds slipped on all three fronts and the Democrat odds of winning the House remains very low.

The Republican odds of winning the House dips for a third straight week from 86.5% last week to 81.6%. These are the lowest odds we have seen.  The odds were at 90.0% just three weeks ago.

The odds of the Democrats straight up capturing the Senate improved from 46.1% to 50.7%.  The odds of a split Senate also increased from 19.8% to 21.1%  This puts the odds of the Republicans maintaining control at just 28.2%, the lowest it has been in four weeks.

The  Republican decrease in odds in all three  areas lowered the odds of a Republican controlled government from 22.5% to just 14%, the lowest of the year. Conversely the gains on the Democratic side led to an increase in them controlling the government from 14% to 17%, the highest they have been at since the end August. This is the first time the Democrats have higher odds of controlling all three parts of government since the middle of August.  The decline in the Republican odds was much larger than the Democrats gain, meaning the odds of a split government increased to another new high at 69.5% (previous high was 63.5% last week)

Here is a trend of those odds:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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21 state polls have been released since the last update with 16 of them impacting the forecast. Most of the 16 helped Hillary Clinton expand her lead.

Here are the polls that had an impact on the forecast:

• 3 NV Polls (Clinton +6, +1, +3) move the state from lean R to lean D
• 2 FL Polls (Clinton +1, +5) move state from tossup to lean D
• 3 NC Polls (Clinton +1, +3, +6) move state from tossup to lean D
• 2 CO Poll (Clinton +11, +11) move state from tossup to likely D
• 3 PA Polls (Clinton +4, +9, +10) move state from lean D to likely D
• NJ Poll (Clinton +6) moves state from lean D to likely D
• NM Poll (Clinton +4) moves state from solid D to likely D
• OR Poll (Clinton +12) moves state from likely D to solid D

The above moved the forecast from the previous 298-240 to the current 315-223.  This current 92 point lead is Clinton’s largest since 9/7 when she led by 94.

Here are the other polls:

• OH Poll Trump +5 confirms state as lean R
• VA Poll Clinton +7 confirms state as solid D
• DE Poll Clinton +21 confirms state as solid D
• Initial TN Poll Trump +12 confirms state as solid R
• IL Poll Clinton +25 confirms state as solid D

With many of the tossup states swinging Clinton’s way, we down to one state:

• AZ

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

• CO
• FL
• NC
• NH
• NV
• PA
• VA
• WI

Trump is leading in a few  thought to be tossups including:

• OH
• IA

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

• Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
• Click here for running list of forecast changes
• Click here for results from last 5 elections
• Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 685