The presidential odds have changed dramatically over the last week when news of the Access Hollywood tape was just breaking.  Since then Clinton’s odds according to betting sites have improved to 80.3% while Donald Trump’s have declined 10% to 16.7%.

The 80.3% is Clinton’s highest of the election cycle.  The 16.7% is Trump’s lowest since the middle of April, a couple of weeks before he had wrapped up the nomination over Ted Cruz.

One thing to note: Paul Ryan has moved up to his highest odds  in five weeks as Trump’s odds have declined.  The odds are still less than 1% at 0.8%, but that is more than twice as much as Johnson and Stein combined.

Here is the full list of odds:

Looking at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government declined as the Democrats saw an increase in their odds of capturing control.

For the fourth straight week, Republican odds of maintaining control of the House declined, this time from 81.6% to 79%.  This is a new bottom after peaking just 4 weeks ago at 90.0%.

The odds of the Democrats straight up capturing the Senate improved from 50.7% to 55.7%.  The odds of a split Senate decreased from 21.1%% to 19.6%  This puts the odds of the Republicans maintaining control at just 24.7%, the lowest it has been in four weeks.

Oddly enough, despite declines in the Republican odds of winning the Presidency, House, and Senate, the odds of the Republicans winning control of the government remained flat at 14%. This is the lowest they have been and points to the fact that at this point, if Trump somehow wins the election, the Republicans will very likely win both the House and the Senate.  The odds of the Democrats winning all three increased for the fourth straight week to 21% from 17%.  This is the highest they have been since 8/20.  These odds are tied to the odds of the Democrats winning the House which are also at 21% signaling a victory there also means victory for the Democrats win the Presidency and the Senate.  The increase in the odds of the Democrats controlling the government means the odds of a split government decreased to 65% from 69.5%.

Here is a trend of those odds:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of electoral college forecast changes to Presidential elections

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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A week ago Donald Trump was closing the lead on Hillary Clinton when the Access Hollywood video was released.  Since then it’s been a bumpy ride.  Through that tape and the debate shortly after, Clinton has expanded her lead in the poll of polls from 3.3% to 5.1%.  This is through Monday.  There aren’t enough polls yet for Tuesday-Thursday.  It’s important to point out that one of the polls used, the Rasmussen Report, is now showing Trump in the lead.  It polls 500 likely voters every day and releases the numbers on a 3 day rolling basis.

Here is a trend of the polls:

Here are the last 10 polls:

Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes.  It’s about the electoral college.  Please see previous posts or click below for updated  state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Methodology:

• Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
• Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
• Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
• Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
• For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate.  The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)

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30 state polls have been released since the last update with 12 of them impacting the forecast.

Here are the polls that had an impact on the forecast:

• 3 OH Poll (Clinton +1, +2, +4) moves state from lean R to lean D
• 2 PA Polls (Clinton +12, +8) move state from likely D to solid D
• Initial AK poll Trump +3 moves state from solid R to likely R
• CO Poll tie moves state from likely D to lean D
• WA Poll Clinton +16 moves state from likely D to solid D
• MI Poll Clinton +11 moves state from likely D to solid D
• NV Poll tie moves state from lean D to tossup
• RI Poll Clinton +20 moves state from likely D to solid D
• NM Poll Clinton +13 moves state from likely D to solid D

The above moved the forecast from the previous 315-223 to the current 326-212.  This current 114 point lead is Clinton’s largest since 8/31 when she led by 116.

Here are the other polls:

• 4 FL Polls Clinton +2, +2, +3, Trump +1 confirm state as lean D
• IA Poll Trump +4 confirms state as likely R
• VA Poll Clinton +12 confirms state as solid D
• OR Poll Clinton +8 confirms state as solid D
• 2 WI Poll Clinton +8, +4 confirms state as solid D
• NH Poll Clinton +2 confirms state as likely D
• IN Poll Trump +5 confirms state as solid R
• 2 AZ Polls Tie, Clinton +2 confirms state as tossup
• TN Poll Trump +11 confirms state as solid R
• MD Poll Clinton +36 confirms state as solid D
• MA Poll Clinton +32 confirms state as solid D
• NC Poll Clinton +2 confirms state as lean D
• TX Poll Trump +7 confirms state as solid R

With many of the tossup states swinging Clinton’s way, we are down to two tossup states:

• AZ
• NV

Many once thought to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

• CO
• FL
• NC
• NH
• OH
• PA
• VA
• WI

Trump is leading in just one  thought to be tossup:

• IA

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

• Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
• Click here for running list of forecast changes
• Click here for results from last 5 elections
• Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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