The bumpy start of the Trump Administration has not hurt Trump’s odds much. Over the last 4 weeks, the payout has barely moved from 2.4X to 2.5X and he still has a higher probability than the next 5.
Trump’s two main competitors in 2016 gained ground this week despite the Democrats wanting new leadership and the fact that both will be well into their 70s (like Trump) in 2020.
Hillary Clinton continued to be in 5th place but her payout dropped for the second straight week, this time to 21.8X from 23.1X.
Bernie Sanders rose from 10th place to 8th place and his payoff is now at 26.7X from 29X. He still only has a 2.4% probability.
The biggest mover was John Hickenlooper, the Democratic Governor of Colorado. He moved from 24th place to 19th place. His payoff moved from 66.3X to 56.3X. He is only at 1.1% probability.
Donald Trump’s Odds for re-election declined slightly after his first week in office. His payout increased from 2.4X to 2.5X, the highest in 6 weeks. Compared to the rest of the pool he has a 26% chance, still higher than the next five candidates combined.
Hillary Clinton has been moving up since the end of November when she was in 11th place. She is now in 5th place, tied with Cory Booker. Their payout is at 23.1x and their probability is at 2.8%.
The other big mover was Kamala Harris who moves up from 14th place to 12th place. Her payout moved from an average of 32.5x to 30.3x times.
There was very little change in the odds this week. In fact the top four have been the same since I started tracking the new odds two weeks after the elections.
Donald Trump continues to lead at 26.5% and a payout of 2.4 to 1. The payout has stabilized at 2.4, after starting out at 2.6.
The next three include Mike Pence at 8.8 to 1, Elizabeth Warren at 10.8 to 1, and Michelle Obama at 13.1 to 1.
Cory Booker has been a fairly consistent number 5 with a current payout of 23.7 to 1 and Hillary Clinton has ranged between 11th and her current 6th place at 25 to 1.
