There was very little change in Donald Trump’s odds this week despite reports indicating he is personally under investigation by the special counsel. The payout remained at 3.0X for the fourth week in a row and his probability dropped slightly from 20.8% to 20.7%.
Bernie Sanders saw a big jump moving from a payout of 22.6X to 22.1X. That was enough for him to jump into 5th place from 7th. Sanders has been hot having his payout decrease in each of the last 7 weeks.
Kamala Harris has seen her profile increase with the hearings and her odds have followed. Her payout has dropped from 33.3X to 31.9X. That was enough for her to move up to 12th place from 13th place.
Mitt Romney was a name from the past that resurfaced this past week on the back of Joe Biden encouraging him to run for Senate. His payout was at 67.0X for the last 21 weeks, but improved this week to 61.7X. This moved him up from 30th place to 29th place.
There was little change in Donald Trump’s odds post Comey testimony. For the third straight week the payout was at 3.0X . His probability did have a small move up to 20.8% from 20.5%, his highest in three weeks. He has a large lead with nearly three times the odds of his next closest competitor, VP Mike Pence.
Bernie Sanders has increased his profile leading the opposition and his odds reflect that. His payout dropped from 23.6X to 22.6X. That is his second lowest of the cycle (22.5X beginning of April). He remains in 7th place overall, 5th among Democrats.
Marco Rubio moved up from 19th place to 18th place. His payout dropped from 38.7X to 36.6X. That is his lowest since the end of the year. He is the top Republican outside of the Trump orbit (Pence and Ryan are ahead of him in the odds).
Donald’s Trump remained fairly flat as his probability saw a slight dip from 20.7% to 20.5%. The payout remained at 3.0X, flat to last week. He had a big drop two weeks ago with the announcement on a special counsel but then rebounded last week. He has similar probability as the next four candidates combined.
Joe Biden fueled speculation of a run by launching a PAC. This helped him keep his hot streak with his payout dropping from 21.5X to 20.9X. That is the lowest payout (highest odds) he has been at. He has improved over the last 8 weeks . He began that stretch with a payout of 291X, and has moved from 9th place to the current 5th place.
Another hot name has been Mark Zuckerberg. A new PAC (that he has nothing to do with) was formed with the goal of convincing the Facebook founder to run. He moves into the the top 10 from 12th place. He was in 16th place 5 weeks ago and in 50th place beginning of the year. His payout has shrunk from over 100X at the beginning of the year to last week’s 32.7X and this week’s 28.9X.
Amy Klobuchar’s odds improved with her payout decreasing from 39.1X to 36.5X. This was an improvement from her worst week as far as odds. Most think she will run in 2020, and that certainly fits with her spending some time in Iowa a few weeks ago. She is now in 16th place and has ranged between 12th place back in January and 19th place last week.
