All posts by Aztocas

2020 Weekly Odds, Cruz 2020, Haley 2020, Kasich 2020, Paul 2020, Pence 2020, Romney 2020, Rubio 2020, Ryan 2020, Scott 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Odds Continue Slow Decline; Speculation about a GOP Primary Challenge Heats Up

Donald Trump continues to be the heavy favorite to win the 2020 elections, although his odds have dropped for the 5th straight week. This week, his payout has increased from 3.2X to 3.3X.  It was at 3.0X just 5 weeks ago.  His probability, at 19%, is still nearly 3 times the his next competitor, Mike Pence.

As his popularity has dropped, there has been speculation that Trump will get a challenge in the Primary.  Who could that challenge come from?  Here the other GOP candidates in the top 35:

Mike Pence: Although Mike Pence is unlikely to challenge Trump in a primary, he remains the 2nd highest from an odds perspective at 8.9X.  This basically signals that he will be the favorite for 2020 if Trump resigns, is impeached, or chooses not to run.  What’s interesting is his odds seem to move in the same direction as Trump’s: He seems to have peaked in the middle of June, which is Trump’s recent high.  At that time his payout was at 8.3X.

Paul Ryan: Ryan is currently 3rd among the Republicans and all the way down at 12th overall.  Like Pence, his success currently seems to hinge on Trump’s.  He peaked in early July at 25.5X and has been dropping  like Trump and Pence.  He is currently at 32.9X.

Marco Rubio: Rubio has been more openly critical than any of the Republicans above him.  Over the last two weeks he has moved from 20th place to 15th place.  He is currently at 41.2X.

Nikki Haley: Haley has probably done the best job in balancing being part of the administration (UN Ambassador) and keeping her distance from Trump.  She has improved over the last two weeks from 24th place to 21st place.  Her payout is currently at 45.5X.

John Kasich: Kasich has been the most consistent in being against some of Trump’s policies, like healthcare, while not attacking Trump in a personal manner.  At this point he would be the most likely to challenge Trump in a primary.  Kasich’s odds have moved more than anybody over the last two weeks with his payout moving from 59.6X to 48.9X.  He is currently in 25th place.

Ted Cruz: Cruz and Kasich were Trump’s last opponents in the primary, and would therefore be expected to be the favorites to be his primary opponents.  Although they are close in odds (Cruz is at 61.7X and in 28th place), Cruz has not moved much the last two weeks (He was in 29th place at 61.7X).

Mitt Romney: Romney has been mostly out of the public spotlight since his failed 2012 run.  His odds have showed little movement over the last year and he is currently in 30th place at 64.3X.

Tim Scott: Scott has just joined the leader board this week in 34th place at 67X.  The African-American GOP Senator came out this week saying Trump has lost his “moral authority”.

Rand Paul:  Paul has held steady.  he had been at 67X for 16 straight weeks until he dropped to 71X this week.  He is currently in 35th place.

Here are the full odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 837

2020 Weekly Odds, Booker 2020, Harris 2020, Kasich 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s Lead Continues Slow Decline; Clinton Back in Top 10; Kasich up on NH Poll; Booker Down

Donald Trump’s odds saw a slight decline for the 4th straight week. His payout increased from 3.15X to 3.20X.  This is the lowest odds this election cycle.  It was at 2.98X four weeks ago.  The probability of him winning (19.3%) is still nearly as high as the next four challengers combined (20.1%)

Cory Booker saw a big drop  with the payout increasing from 22.2X to 24.6X.  That was enough to drop him to 8th place.  This is the lowest he has been at.  Kamala Harris seems to have stolen Booker’s thunder.  Booker started the election cycle in 5th place with a payout of only 19.6X.

Hillary Clinton saw improvement in her odds this week as they moved from 26.6X to 25.4X. That was enough to move her from 11th place to 9th place.  She has been as high as 5th place from late January to early May.

The biggest move up was John Kasich.  His odds moved from 59.6X to 49.7X. Those are his best odds of the cycle.  This moved him from 28th place to 26th place.  The improvement maybe the result of a poll of GOP NH primary voters came out showing they would prefer Kasich over Trump. 

Here is a full list of odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 743

2020 Weekly Odds, Patrick 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020, Zuckerberg 2020

Trump’s Odds with Another Small Decline; Deval Patrick Makes Debut as he is Urged by Obama Associates to Run; Zuckerberg up on Hiring of Former Obama/Clinton Adviser

Donald Trump saw another small decline in his odds for re-election as his payout once again increased from 3.10X to 3.15X.  This is the third decline in a row and the highest the payout has been to date.  This is consistent with Trump hitting new lows in some of the approval polls. He remains the odds on favorite having almost as much odds as the next four competitors combined.

Deval Patrick made his debut in 14th place this week driven by news that the former Massachusetts Governor is being urged to run in 2020 by Obama’s inner circle.  His payout is at 36.6X.

Bernie Sanders continued improving as his payout fell to 17.8X from 18.6X last week and 19.9X the previous week.  This is the lowest payout he has been at.  He remains in 5th place for the 8th straight week.

Mark Zuckerberg remained another hot name.  His payout dropped from 24.9X to 23.2X and he moved up from 11th place to 8th place, the highest he has ever been.  Speculation about him running increased as his non-profit hired a former Obama and Clinton pollster/adviser.

Here is a full list of odds:

For updates please follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

Views – 730