After 15 straight weeks of improvement, Donald Trump’s odds took a break. His payout increased from 2.77X to 2.79X. These are still significantly better odds from the 3.29X he had before the start of the streak. Trump has higher odds than the next four candidates combined.
Last week, Elizabeth Warren announced she is not running. Her odds took a hit from 13.3X to 15.5X. A week later, her odds rebounded to 13.4X which was enough for her to jump into 4th place. She was in 3rd two weeks ago, ahead of Bernie Sanders.
Joe Biden hasn’t ruled out running in 2020 and this week engaged in a war of words with Trump. Could this be a preview of what is to come in 2020? Biden’s odds improved from 18.5X to 16.8X. These are the top odds he has had this election cycle.
Donald Trump’s Odds improved for the 9th straight week. Last week he announced he would run in 2020. This week he announced his slogan will be “Keep America Great”. His payout decreased from 2.82X to 2.77X. These are the best odds he has had in exactly one year.
The big news on the week was Elizabeth Warren announcing that she will not run in 2020. The MA Senator was once the top challenger to Trump. The announcement hurt her odds as her payout increased from 13.3X to 15.5X. That was enough to drop her from 3rd to 5th place.
The drop in Warren’s odds went mostly to Bernie Sanders and Cory Booker. Sanders’ odds improved as his payout dropped from 14.4X to 12.8X. That was enough to move him from 5th place to 3rd place. These are the highest odds Sanders has seen for 2020.
Cory Booker’s odds improved as his payout dropped from 28.3X to 26.6X. That was enough to take him back into the top 10 from 11th. These are his highest odds in 11 weeks.
Donald Trump’s odds continued to improve, this week moving from a 2.87X payout to a 2.82X. These are his best odds in almost a year (3/25/17). He had bottomed at the beginning of September and has since risen exclusively at the expense of the other top Republicans. Since September, Mike Pence’s payout has increased from 9.1X to 14.0X, Paul Ryan from 32.8 to 36.8X, and Marco Rubio 40.1 to 47.9X, Nikki Haley from 46.0 Xto 51.3X, and John Kasich from 47.7X to 54.1X.
The other big trend over the past few months has been Kamala Harris’ rise to the top spot for the Democrats edging out Elizabeth Warren. On the week, Harris improved from 12.8X to 12.6X while Warren declined with her odds moving from 13.1X to 13.3X. A year ago Harris was in 12th place at 32.1X while Warren was the top Democrat at 10.2X.
It seems like odds always jump whenever someone denies they are running in 2020. This week it was Michelle Obama’s turn to say she is not running. Her odds moved from 26.0X to 24.5X, her highest in 6 weeks. She remains in 9th place overall.
