All posts by Aztocas

2020 Weekly Odds, Bloomberg 2020, Klobuchar 2020, Trump 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds stabilize post shutdown; “Tough Boss” Klobuchar’s odds improve as she makes it official; Bloomberg to spend $500 million to defeat Trump whether he runs or not; Yang’s universal income idea increases profile, ups odds

Donald Trump’s odds had a slight increase moving from 2.96X to 2.92X. His odds seem to have stabilized post government shutdown landing in a range of 2.90X to 2.96X the last five weeks. He was at 2.43X in mid November prior to the government shutdown talks.

Amy Klobuchar made it official this week as stories came out about her “tough boss” persona. It made for some interesting interviews where she seems to have embraced the reputation rather than back away from it. Her odds once again improved, this time from 24.6X to 18.5X. This was enough to move her to 6th place, ahead of one-time darling of the left Elizabeth Warren. This is a new high for the Democratic Senator from MN.

Michael Bloomberg is prepared to spend $500 million to defeat Trump whether he runs or not. That’s less than 1% of his reported net worth. His odds improved from 32.1X to 28.3X and he moved up from 12th place to 9th place.

Andrew Yang is a little known Democratic Candidate that seems to have found a way to up his profile. His idea to ensure every American has an income of at least $1,000 a month landed him in Time this week. The increase in publicity has helped him have the highest jump of anyone this week. His odds moved from 169.4X to 127X. That was enough to have him jump from 81st place to 63rd.

Here are the full odds:

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Donald Trump’s Odds at 11 month lows; Kamala Harris reaches another new high after strong first month as candidate; Amy Klobuchar’s odds rise on talk of official announcement, despite reports of mistreatment of staff; Tim Ryan looking to join crowded Democratic field

Donald Trump’s odds took a step back after last week’s rebound, dropping from 2.91X to 2.96X. These are the lowest odds he has had in 11 months, tied with where they were at two weeks ago. His best odds were at 2.31X in August 2018.

Kamala Harris continued her strong first month as a candidate. Her odds reached another new high this week at 6.28X, up from last week’s 6.38X. She has now improved the last 8 weeks. She was at 7.93X and in 3rd place (to Beto) when the streak started. She has now distanced herself from all other candidates, more than doubling the odds of everyone behind her with the exception of Beto O’Rourke and Joe Biden.

Amy Klobuchar’s odds improved and reached a new high this week with the expectation she will announce her candidacy on Sunday. She is now at 24.6X up from 26.1X. There are reports she is having difficulty filling campaign positions due to her mistreatment of staff.

Despite the crowded field on the Democratic side, potential candidates continue to mull over their own potential candidacy. The latest is Ohio Democrat Tim Ryan who will be visiting Iowa and New Hampshire in the coming weeks. His odds jumped from 143.3X to 122.2X. That moved the longshot from 69th place to 56th place, his highest in 8 months.

Here are the full odds:

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Donald Trump’s odds end losing streak as government re-opens; Cory Booker latest Democrat to announce; Can an Independent run by Schultz help get Trump re-elected? Beto’s falling odds

With the government shutdown over, Donald Trump’s odds reversed course and improved from 2.96X to 2.91X. They are still below where they were three weeks ago (2.90X) and far off where they were prior to the streak (2.43X in mid November).

The trend of recent Senate Democrats announcing their candidacy continued this week with Cory Booker. His odds improved from 36.7X to 32.9X, his highest in 5 weeks. Booker was once thought to be one of the top tier candidates starting the cycle in 5th place but slowly declining. He is currently in 13th place.

Howard Schultz went on 60 Minutes last week to say he was considering running as an independent. The pushback from the left came quick as fears of a run by an independent would help Trump get re-elected. Schultz’s odds improved from 84.5X to 78.1X, and he rose from 29th place to 23rd place. He has been as high as 14th place back in July 2018.

Beto O’Rourke’s odds have been slipping lately. Although he remains in 3rd place overall, his odds have fallen in recent weeks. After peaking at 7.68X four weeks ago, he has now fallen for three straight weeks and is down to 10.1X. These are his lowest odds in 10 weeks. The drop has been caused by both being overshadowed by candidacy announcements from other Democrats as well as some questionable moves.

Here are the full odds:

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