All posts by Aztocas

2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Pence 2020, Trump 2020

Trump’s odds skyrocket after William Barr’s summary while odds of 9 out of the next 10 competitors drop with biggest drop for Pence; Buttigieg continues to be hottest name doubling his odds; Biden sees drop on allegations of inappropriate touching

Donald Trump’s odds skyrocketed a week after William Barr’s summary of the Mueller report. The President took a “victory tour” and his odds jumped from 2.75X to 2.41X. These are his best odds in 7 months. He was at 2.33X in the middle of August.

The increase came at the expense of other candidates as 9 out of the next 10 top candidates dropped including Trump’s VP Mike Pence. Pence’s odds had the biggest drop, moving from 45.2X to 58.7X, marking a new low. Pence was as high as 8.0X back at the end of 2016. He is currently in 12th place.

The only candidate in the top 10 to improve was Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg remains the hottest name in the field, having now improved in 8 straight weeks. This week his odds more than doubled moving from 40.5X to 19.0X. This was enough to move him to 6th place overall. He was in 30th place merely five weeks ago. The “millennial mayor” has become the early surprise of a crowded field.

The anticipation of Joe Biden’s candidacy over the last few weeks propelled his odds from 10.9X to 7.18X. Those odds saw a big drop this week on accusations of inappropriate touching. He is now at 7.96X dropping from 3rd place to 4th. With the accusations coming late in the week, it won’t be surprising to see a bigger drop in odds next week.

Here are the full odds:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 697
2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, Buttigieg 2020, Sanders 2020, Trump 2020

Conclusion of Mueller investigation helps Trump’s odds; Buttigieg’s hot streak lands him in top 10; Sanders focuses on CA while reports tease Biden’s potential VP pick; Both jump Harris for 2nd and 3rd place

News of the conclusion of the Mueller investigation seemed to give Donald Trump’s odds a boost. His odds improved from 2.85X to 2.75X. His odds have now improved the last 4 weeks and have reached their highest in three months.

One of the hottest names recently has been Pete Buttigieg. His odds skyrocketed this week from 63.5X to 40.5X, improving his standing from 14th place to 10th place. He made his debut in the odds merely 9 weeks ago at 103.6X (42nd place) when the 37 year old made his candidacy official.

Bernie Sanders is focusing on CA as the state’s move to an earlier primary makes is a big player. His momentum continued this week with his odds improving from 7.16X to 7.07X which allowed him to jump Kamala Harris for second overall.

Joe Biden also jumped Kamala Harris this week as his odds improved from 7.57X to 7.18X, putting him in 3rd place overall. Although he has not officially announced, stories leaked of him considering Stacey Abrams as his VP candidate and him committing to just one term, both ways to combat one of his perceived weaknesses being age.

Here are the full odds:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 714
2020 Weekly Odds, Biden 2020, ORourke 2020, Trump 2020, Yang 2020

Trump’s odds improve to best in 11 weeks on small increase; Beto makes it official, sucks up 2020 coverage from both sides; Biden continues to tease run; Yang jumps ahead of big names including Warren, Klobuchar, and Booker

Donald Trump’s Odds continued their recent streak of small but consistent improvements, this week moving from 2.86X to 2.85X. This is the third straight week of improvements. He was at 2.93X four weeks ago. This is the highest he has been in 11 weeks. The headlines this week centered around Congress’ vote to release the Mueller report and Trump’s first veto to the rebuke from Congress on the border wall state of emergency.

Beto O’Rourke finally made it official this week. The amount of coverage he received from all media whether political in nature or not, would suggest his candidacy will either be very successful (top 3 Democratic candidate) or a total flop (ala Jeb Bush being a top candidate and quickly crashing and burning in 2016). His odds improved from 10.1X to 9.2X. He stayed in 5th place overall.

Joe Biden is the last top candidate that has not announced his intentions of running. He continues to tease a run, and the direction his odds have moved the past four weeks indicate most believe he will run. He was up this week from 8.39X to 7.57X, allowing him to stay in fourth place. His odds were at 10.9X just one month ago.

Perhaps the hottest name not on everyone’s radar is Andrew Yang. The Democrat that is best known for his Universal Basic Income stance continues to get media coverage giving life to his unlikely candidacy. He jumped this week from 50.5X to 27.2X, moving from 13th place to 6th place. To give some perspective about the inroads he has made (at least from a betting perspective): He is currently ahead of big names like Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and Cory Booker. He was first mentioned on this blog exactly one month ago when he jumped from 169X and 81st place to 127X and 63rd place.

Here are the full odds:

For updates follow me on Twitter

Views – 745