All posts by Aztocas

Updated Odds: Bush and Trump Announcements Lead to Big Gains. Sanders Continues Hot Streak.

Hillary Clinton continues to be steady at the top at 42%.  She has been between 41% and 42% since middle of April.

Jeb Bush officially enters the races and has the biggest move up from 10.8% to 11.3%.   This just gets him back to where he was 4 weeks ago as he’s been losing ground to Marco Rubio the last few weeks.

Bush’s improvement comes at the expense of Scott Walker and Rand Paul who each drop 0.2% to 4.2% and 2.3%.  They both remain in 4th and 5th place respectively.

Bernie Sanders continues his hot streak coming in at 1.6% and jumping over Joe Biden to 3rd place for the Democrats and 7th place overall.  He is within striking distance of Elizabeth Warren who has indicated she is not running.

The other big move this week was Donald Trump entering the race.  The announcement doubled his odds from 0.4% to 0.8% moving him from 50th place all the way up to 18th place. Surprisingly he is well ahead of veteran politicians who have declared including Santorum, Perry, Graham, Chafee, Pataki.   It remains to be seen if this betting odds hype translates into the polls and later to votes.

The numbers also seem to indicate which candidates are likely to be the first to drop out.  George Pataki has not gone higher than 43rd since entering the race close to a month ago.  Lincoln Chafee started in 27th place and has dropped down to 47th place two weeks later.

Here’s the full list of odds June 20 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1067

Updated Weekly Odds: Rubio and Sanders hot and Christie Cold. Chafee and Pataki Not Gaining Traction

Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush continued to be one and two at 41.9% and 10.8% respectively.

Marco Rubio continued his hot streak closing in on Bush.  He improved from 5.9% to 6.2% and has cut Bush’s lead from 6.0% to 4.6% in just 4 weeks.

Bernie Sanders was by far the hottest candidate moving from 0.7% to 1.5%.  That catapulted him from 21st place to 8th place.  He was in 42nd place just 7 weeks ago. He even leapfrogged Martin O’Malley for 4th among Democrats behind Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden, both of whom are unlikely to run.

While Sanders and Rubio are two of the hottest candidates, Christie continues to be the coldest.  He dropped another 0.2% to 1.1% and from 9th place to 10th place.  Just 10 weeks ago he was double that at 2.2% and 7th place.

Some recent entrants have struggled to gain any ground.  Lincoln Chafee dropped from 27th to 37th place one week after entering.  George Pataki dropped from 43rd to 48th two week after entering.

Here is the list of all candidates:

June 132015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Views – 1149

Updated Weekly Odds: Rubio Challenging Bush; O’Malley and Bloomberg up; Perry, Chafee, Graham Announce

Hillary Clinton continued to be steady at the top at 41.8%.  She has been between 41% and 42% the last 8 weeks.

Marco Rubio continues to close the gap on Jeb Bush for second place.  Rubio gained 0.2% to 5.9% while Bush fell 0.5% to 10.8%.  The 4.9% gap between the two is the smallest since the end of 2014.

Martin O’Malley moves up from 10th place to 7th place passing up Joe Biden for 3rd place among Democrats.  His 1.4% is still significantly behind Warren’s 2.1%.  Warren remains strong in 6th place overall despite stating over and over again that she is not running.

Another week means more people throwing their names in the hat:

Rick Perry announced and moves up from 30th place to 26th place.  Perry got as high as 4th place last summer as he tried to capitalize on the border crisis and before his indictment.

Lincoln Chafee announced for the Democrats and makes his debut on the list at #27

Lindsey Graham announced for the Republicans and makes his debut at #32

Michael Bloomberg moves up to 17th place from 20th place as anti-Clinton Democrats look for a realistic alternative.  Bloomberg may also run as an independent.  This is the highest Bloomberg has been.

Bernie Sanders moves up to the 21st spot from 27th, the highest he has been.

Bobby Jindal drops once again to 23rd place from 17th place.  Jindal was a top 10 candidate last summer but the fiscal mess in his home state has taken a lot of the wind out of his sail.

Here is the full list of candidates:

June 6 2015 pres odds

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

 

Views – 1085