After four straight weeks of drops, Hillary Clinton rebounded, improving from 59.2% to 61.5%.

This came at the expense of Donald Trump who dropped from 32.9% to 29.6%.  This is still the second highest Trump has been.  He had been up six of the last eight weeks.

Bernie Sanders stays alive a few days before the crucial primaries.  His odds increased to 5.1% from 4.4%.  This is the highest he has been since mid April.  Polls in CA have been narrowing but Clinton still leads.

For an updated state by state forecast of the election click here

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

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Hillary Clinton continued to have a strong but declining lead.

The updated forecast has Clinton leading Donald Trump 300-238. Trump has cut the lead by 12 points in the last week and by 46 over the last month.

This week the gains have come from polls in NJ, NH, and GA:

• A NJ poll showed Clinton +4.  The prior two were +7 and +11.  This shrinking lead caused the state to move from solid D to likely D
• A NH poll showed a tie after the previous Clinton +2.  That moved the state from lean D to tossup
• A GA poll had Trump +7 after the previous polls had Trump +4 and +3.  That moved GA from lean R to likely R.

Other polls merely confirmed the current status of states:

• 2 CA polls one Clinton +12 and one Clinton +24 confirmed CA as solid D
• A NY poll with Clinton +21 confirmed state as solid D
• MI poll with Clinton +4 kept MI likely D for the moment (prior polls at +10 and +11)

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

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As we get closer to the conventions, odds for the VP candidates have become more plentiful.  According to the odds, here’s the most likely candidates for both parties.

On the Republican side, the clear favorite is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.  He has the same probability as the next 5 combined.

The next three are current Senators: Joni Ernst (Iowa), Bob Corker (Tennessee), and Jeff Sessions (Alabama).

The next three ran against Trump for the nomination: Chris Christie (one of the first to support Trump after dropping out), John Kasich, and Ben Carson.

Here’s a list of the top 20:

The list is shorter and without as clear of a favorite for the Democrats.

Julian Castro, current Secretary of HUD and former Mayor of San Antonio, is the odds on favorite at 22.9%.  The Democrats have groomed Castro as part of the next generation of leaders of the party the last few years.

Two Senators come in second and third in Tim Kaine of Virginia and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.  Warren and Trump are already involved in a Twitter war of words.

Current Secretary of Labor Tom Perez is in 4th followed by Bernie Sanders in 5th.  Bernie Sanders is a great fit to unite the Democrats but might be unlikely given the current state of affairs between his camp and the Democratic leadership.

Here is a list of the top Democratic candidates:

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

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