On the Republican side, Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions made the biggest move since the last update.  He was up from 4th place and just 6.1% to first place and 28.1%.

Newt Gingrich, who was the clear favorite at 28.9% has dropped to 17.1% but is the clear #2.

Joni Ernst and Chris Christie remain strong at third and fourth place while Bob Corker drops from third to sixth.

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Predictit.org is a  financial market for political predictions.

Some of the financial predictions include who will the Presidency, and which party will win the House and Senate.

By looking at these markets, we can draw conclusions on different probabilities.

As of today, the most likely outcome is a Democratic President and Senate with a Republican House (36.1% probability).

Two other less likely but possible scenarios are a Democratic President with a Republican House and Senate (20.3%) and a Republican President and House with a Democratic Senate (17.4%).

The probability of a divided government (where neither party has control of all three) is 83.1%

The Republicans have a higher probability (9.8%) than the Democrats (7.1%) of sweeping all three thanks to their fairly strongly hold on the House.

Here is a look at the probabilities:

Click here fora state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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At the surface, there was very little change in the overall forecast in this update as Clinton continues to lead big at 300 vs. Trump’s 238.

What is interesting however is the first polls post Johnson’s nomination for the Libertarian party.

In a Poll taken in Utah, Trump has a +7 lead head to head against Clinton, but that leads shrinks to +3 once Johnson is included.  Johnson takes a significant 16 points.  That moves the state to a likely R in the forecast from a solid R.

The opposite happened in Connecticut where head to head Clinton leads Trump by 7.  That shrinks once Johnson and Stein are included to +5.  Johnson and Stein combine for 9 points.

The two moves above cancel each other mathematically to keep the overall forecast the same.

Other polls merely confirmed the current status of states:

• 3 more CA polls confirm state as solid D (Clinton +26, +19, +15)
• FL poll confirms state as lean D (Clinton +3)
• NJ poll confirms state as likely D (Clinton +15)

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 831