There have been 4 national polls with Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and Gary Johnson in both May and so far in June.

When we average those polls we see:

• Clinton improving from 40 in May to 42 in June
• Trump decreasing from 39 in May to 36 in June
• Johnson increasing from 7 in May to 10 in June

On average, Clinton moved from a +1 to a +5.5 so far in June over Trump.

Perhaps this shouldn’t be a surprise as May was the month Trump clinched the nomination, while June is the month where Clinton and Johnson clinched it.

It will be interesting to see what happens the second half of June which will reflect the tragedy in Orlando.

Here’s the results by poll:

Click here fora state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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Hillary Clinton clinched the nomination last week and was up a substantial 5.4% vs the prior week to 66.9%.  That is the second highest mark she has been at.  She was at 68.4% at the end of April.

As one would expect with Clinton clinching, Sanders dropped.  His odds, however, are still fairly substantial.  He comes in at 3.3% which is still higher than the beginning of May.  This may be a reflection of Clinton’s potential email problem blowing up prior to the convention.  That is exactly the reason Joe Biden’s odds keep hanging on at 2.3%.

Donald Trump was down for the second straight week at 26.4% from 29.6%.  Trump’s high two weeks ago was at 32.9%.  Trump has had a tough couple of weeks with the Trump University/Mexican Judge controversy which has made building a bridge with the Republican establishment tougher.

Here’s a trend of the weekly odds:

Click here fora state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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Gary Johnson’s poll numbers have increased from 5% at the end of May to the most recent 12% for an average of 9%.

Where is this 9% coming from?

There have been three recent polls that have showed both head to head between Trump and Clinton as well as adding Gary Johnson to the mix. Here are their results:

Based on these polls, it’s clear Johnson is taking a substantial amount from both candidates, although he seems to be taking more away from Clinton (average of 4.7) than from Trump (average 3.7).

It will be interesting to see if Johnson can get high enough in the polls to be included in the debates, and how that may change this race.  Johnson will need to poll at 15% or above to be included.

Click here fora state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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