Hillary Clinton continued to increase her lead as she improved by 0.1% to 67.0%. These are her highest odds and gap versus Trump in 7 weeks.

Donald Trump had his third bad week in a row dropping from 26.4% to 25.7% as some of his Orlando massacre comments as well yet another movement, this time by RNC delegates, to find an alternative, may have hurt.

It’s very interesting that both Clinton and Trump have their party’s nomination mathematically wrapped up, yet the betting odds of their alternatives still show signs of life:

• For the Democrats Bernie Sanders has not thrown in the towel yet and his odds declined by only 0.4% to 2.9%.  Joe Biden continues to show up at 2.2%, down from last week’s 2.3%.  He’s seen as the mainstream alternative should Clinton’s email scandal blow up.
• On the Republican side Paul Ryan gained a little bit of ground to 0.8% from 0.6% while Romney dropped from 0.5% to 0.4%.  What’s interesting is the lack of Ted Cruz on this list.  Many of the delegates attempting to find an alternative to Trump are Cruz delegates (which makes sense as Cruz as the second highest number of delegates).

Gary Johnson and Jill Stein have finally made it on enough betting sites to be included in the odds.

• Johnson, the Libertarian candidates makes his debut at 0.6%. He has been polling at between 4% and 6% in the four polls that include all four candidates.
• Stein, the Green party candidate, debuts at 0.4%.  She has been polling 2%-4% in these same polls.

Here’s the full odds:

Click here fora state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

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This post is to update the odds from last week’s post based on the market at PredictIt.org.

In the past week:

• The probability of the Democrats winning the presidency increased from 67.5% to 70.5%
• The probability of the House remaining under Republican control decreased from 83.5% to 79%.
• The probability of the Republican maintaining control of the Senate improved from 36% to 38%

What does this mean to the probability of which party controls the government.  The most likely outcome remains  a Democratic President and Senate with a Republican House  at 34.5%  although that dropped from 36.1%.

The probability of a Democratic President with a Republican House and Senate is the second most likely at 21.2%.  That is up from 20.3% last week.

The third most likely outcome is a Republican President and House with a Democratic Senate.  That likelihood is now only 14.4% down from 17.4% last week.

The probability of a divided government (where neither party has control of all three) is 82.0% down from 83.1%.

Both parties have a very small chance of sweeping all three with the Democrats now ahead of the Republicans at 9.2% to 8.9%.

Here is a look at the probabilities:

Click here fora state by state forecast of the Presidential elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 Presidential elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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With the primaries over, the state polls have been few and far between.

The biggest change to the forecast came as a result of a Florida Poll showing Trump +1.  Previous polls had Clinton +1 and +3.  This was enough to move the state from lean D to a tossup.

The other poll causing a small change is the first CT poll showing Clinton +5.  That moves the state from solid D to likely D.

This moves the forecast from 301-237 Clinton down to 293-245 Clinton.  Trump has cut Clinton’s lead at the start of May (108) by more than half (currently at 48)

There were two other polls:

• PA poll with Clinton +1 keeps it lean D
• WI poll with Clinton +9 keeps it likely D

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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