Where was the race a year ago this week?

The one constant is Hillary Clinton led at 42%.  She has led the odds since the start of the race.

Donald Trump on the other hand had just announced he is entering the race. That announcement was enough to vault him from 50th place the prior week to 18th place.  Here’s what I said about Trump in that post:

“The other big move this week was Donald Trump entering the race.  The announcement doubled his odds from 0.4% to 0.8% moving him from 50th place all the way up to 18th place. Surprisingly he is well ahead of veteran politicians who have declared including Santorum, Perry, Graham, Chafee, Pataki.   It remains to be seen if this betting odds hype translates into the polls and later to votes.”

It’s clear in this case that the betting odds were ahead of what most experts thoughts.

Bernie Sanders was already hot, as he had just jumped Joe Biden but was still behind Elizabeth Warren. Here’s what I said about him :

“Bernie Sanders continues his hot streak coming in at 1.6% and jumping over Joe Biden to 3rd place for the Democrats and 7th place overall.  He is within striking distance of Elizabeth Warren who has indicated she is not running.”

The big news of the week was Jeb Bush entering the race:

“Jeb Bush officially enters the races and has the biggest move up from 10.8% to 11.3%.   This just gets him back to where he was 4 weeks ago as he’s been losing ground to Marco Rubio the last few weeks.

Bush’s improvement comes at the expense of Scott Walker and Rand Paul who each drop 0.2% to 4.2% and 2.3%.  They both remain in 4th and 5th place respectively.”

Here’s the full list of odds  as of 6/20/2015

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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Polls from some important swing states have been released recently, two of which have influenced the forecast:

On 6/16 a VA poll showed Clinton +3 over Trump.   Combining that with a previous Clinton +4 poll pushed the state from the prior tossup to a lean D.

On 6/21  a FL poll showed Clinton +6. While 6 is a large spread that is normally classified as Likely D, combining that poll with the previous Trump +1 and Clinton +3 moved the state from a tossup to Lean D.

These two changes helped widen Clinton’s lead from 48 (293-245) to 70 (304-234).

Other polls released included:

• 6/20 UT poll Trump +9 confirms likely R
• 6/21 PA poll Clinton +3 confirms lean D
• 6/21 OH Poll Clinton +2 confirms tossup

Here’s a trend of the forecast

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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On the Republican side, the same two remained odds on favorites: Jeff Sessions (27.2%) and Newt Gingrich (17.3%).

Joni Ernst remained the far off third place candidate at 7.0%.

The surprise entry was John Kasich at 6.8% (tied with Chris Christie for 4th).  According to this commentary, he’d be a good candidate as he’d fit the “not crazy” profile and help with a must get state in Ohio.

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