The first Trump vs. Clinton poll was released for Arkansas and showed the state comfortably for Trump (+11).

Another poll was released for Texas showing Trump leading Clinton by 8.  This is the first Clinton vs Trump poll since September.

Both of these states are expected to be solid Republican states and don’t change the forecast which remains at 307 to 231 Clinton.

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 1029

A few polls were released on Thursday and Sunday.  The most interesting were in NC and CO.

A NC poll released on Thursday showed a tie between Trump and Clinton.  This was followed up by a poll released on Sunday that had Clinton at +2.  Previous polls had Trump +4.  This was enough to move the state from a likely R in the last forecast to a tossup.

In the last 5 elections CO has gone Republican 3 times and Democrat 2 times.  The latest poll released on Sunday had Clinton +1.  That was the first poll in nearly 3 months and it was enough to move the state from lean D to tossup.

In total these two moves amounted to Clinton increasing her lead from 70 to 76. (307-231)

Other polls released included:

• 6/26 WI poll Clinton +5 confirms likely D
• 6/26 FL poll Clinton +3 confirms lean D

Here’s a trend of the forecast

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 824

There was very little movement this week, but there was enough for Hillary Clinton to increase her lead over Donald Trump to an 8 week high.

Clinton’s odds increased by 0.2% to 67.2%, her highest in 8 weeks.

Trump’s odds declined by 0.5% to 25.3%, his lowest in 8 weeks. This cause led to a 42% margin for Clinton over Trump, the largest since the beginning of May.

There was virtually no movement in the other odds except for Paul Ryan.  He was up from 0.8% to 1.1%.  He has nearly double over the last 5 weeks.  What is driving it?  How could Ryan win? According to this article, the unlikely scenario would begin with Gary Johnson winning a few states to prevent any candidate from getting the electoral votes needed to win.

Here are the overall odds of all candidates:

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 732