July has been a good month for Trump as far as the state polls which has allowed him to close the gap from an electoral college forecast perspective.

33 polls have been released so far in July (and 38 since the last update).  While many of these polls merely confirmed earlier forecasts, they did cause the forecasts for six states to shift:

• FL: started the month as lean D but 4 polls initially moved the state to tossup, then to lean R, back to the current tossup.  The 4 polls include a tie, 2 polls with Trump +5, and the latest with Clinton +5.  Given the high number of electoral votes (29, 3rd highest), this will be a must win state for both candidates.
• PA: started the month as out as lean D but 3 polls (Clinton +2, Trump +6, Clinton +8) have moved it to a tossup.  It will be another must tossup state with its 20 electoral votes.
• CO moves from tossup to lean D to likely D as a total of 5 polls help add color to the state (Clinton +7, +1, +9, +13, +6)
• MO moves from lean R to likely R based on a Trump +10 poll
• NC moves from tossup to lean D as poll has Clinton +6
• MI from likely D to lean D as 3 polls show a smaller Clinton lead (+3, +3, +5) than before

All these polls have moved the forecast from 314 to 224 to begin the month (90 point Clinton lead) to the current 298 to 240 forecast (58 point lead). Trump got as close as 291 to 247 (44 points) in the middle of the month when FL temporarily moved to lean R. That was the closest he has been.

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

Click here fora state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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Although Hillary Clinton avoided prosecution, FBI Director’s testimony in front of Congress appears to have hurt her odds.  Clinton dropped 2.6% from 66.9% to 64.3% despite getting Bernie Sanders’ endorsement.  This is the lowest she has been in the last 6 weeks.

Donald Trump was able to capitalize on it jumping by 4.0% to 30.4%, his highest in 7 weeks.   The 30.4% is the second highest he has been (was at 32.9% on 5/28)

Trump’s jump was higher than Clinton’s decline due to drops for Sanders and Biden.  With Sanders’ endorsement and no email prosecution, it appears Clinton’s nomination is inevitable.  Sanders dropped from 2.7% to 1.6%, his lowest since June of 2015.  Biden dropped from from 1.6% to 1.3%, his lowest since April.

Hillary Clinton still maintains a substantial lead of 33.9%, although that is the lowest in the last 6 weeks.

Here are the overall odds:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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The biggest news this week was the AG announcing that Hillary Clinton will not be charged for the email scandal.  That moved the odds for Bernie Sanders down from 3.0% to 2.7%, his lowest since the start of May.  Joe Biden also got hit dropping an even greater 0.5% to 1.6%, his lowest since early May as well.

One would expect this combined 0.8% drop would all go to Clinton.  In fact Clinton only went up 0.4%, the same as Trump.  That is a sign that overall the week helped Trump.

Clinton was up 0.4% to 66.9%, her second straight weekly gain.

Trump was up 0.4% to 26.4%, the highest he has been in four weeks.

Here are the overall odds:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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