Hillary Clinton’s post DNC momentum continued as she expanded her lead from last week’s 5% to nearly 10% (50.1% to 40.4%). This is the biggest lead she has had on Donald Trump since both have become the clear nominees. She has led in the last 13 reputable national polls released covering polling dates from 7/26.
Late last week, there were rumors of Donald Trump’s camp being frustrated with the candidate. That lead to a “reset” of the campaign. The candidate followed that up with a disciplined economic speech on Monday, followed by a controversial “Second Amendment people” comment on Tuesday. Clinton has her own controversy with more emails just released on Wednesday that shed light on the relationship between the Clinton foundation and the State Department. It will be interesting to see how the polls move, if at all, as a result.
Here is a trend of the polls:
Here are the last 10 polls used in the tracking:
Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes. It’s about the electoral college. Please see previous posts or click below for updated state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Click here for running list of forecast changes
Click here for results from last 5 elections
Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates
Methodology:
- Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
- Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
- Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
- Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
- For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate. The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)
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