Donald Trump seems to have stabilized his numbers after two weeks of declines where he dropped nearly nine points.
Trump’s numbers have now been around 38% the last 5 days while Hillary Clinton has dropped in that same time span from 45% to 44%. This has closed the gap to its current 6% (43.8% to 37.9%). That is the smallest gap since August 1. Clinton seems to have been hurt by the release of more emails between state department and Clinton Foundation staffers which feeds into voter questions about her.
Here is a trend of the polls:
Here are the last 10 polls used in the tracking:
Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes. It’s about the electoral college. Please see previous posts or click below for updated state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Click here for running list of forecast changes
Click here for results from last 5 elections
Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates
Methodology:
- Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
- Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
- Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
- Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
- For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate. The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)
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