Eleven polls have been released over the last three days. Five of these polls moved the forecast for their states:
FL Poll Clinton +9 moves state from lean D to likely D
2 VA Polls Clinton +7 and +11 move state from likely D to solid D
IN poll Trump +11 moves state from likely R to solid R
MI Poll Clinton +11 moves state from likely D to solid D
The above changed the forecast from the previous 329-209 Clinton to the current 335-203 Clinton. This is the largest lead since the start of the forecast in the beginning of May.
Other polls during the period:
TX Poll Trump +6 confirms state as solid R
CO Poll Clinton +8 confirms state as solid D
IA Poll Clinton +2 confirms state as tossup
first MS poll Trump +13 confirms state as solid R
GA poll tie confirms state as tossup
NV Poll Clinton +2 confirms state as tossup
The current tossup states are:
AZ
GA
IA
NV
OH
Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:
CO
FL
NC
NH
PA
VA
WI
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Donald Trump has closed the gap with Hillary Clinton when compared to two weeks ago. Between 8/3 and 8/7 Clinton was ahead by roughly 6.8%. For the last week, the gap has shrunk down to roughly 5.8% for 8/11-8/14. This reverses a trend that began post the DNC where in the span of a week Trump went from a small lead to being behind Clinton by 7%.
Trump has been more on message recently. It remains to be seen how adding Steve Bannon of Breitbart will impact his campaign.
Here is a trend of the poll of polls:
Here are the last 10 polls used in the tracking:
Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes. It’s about the electoral college. Please see previous posts or click below for updated state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate. The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)
Ten polls have been released over the last three days. Three of these polls moved the forecast for their states:
CO Poll Clinton +12 moves state from likely D to solid D (Average of Clinton +11 for last three polls)
NC Poll Clinton +9 moves state from tossup to lean D
2 FL Polls, both Clinton +5, move state from tossup to lean D
The above moved the forecast from the previous 316-222 Clinton to the current 329-209 Clinton. This is the largest lead since the start of the forecast in at the beginning of May.
Other polls during the period:
TX Poll Trump +11 confirms state as solid R
VA Poll Clinton +12 confirms state as solid D
FL Poll Clinton +5 confirms state as tossup
NH Poll Clinton +9 confirms state as likely D GA
NY Poll Clinton +25 confirms state as solid D First
WA poll Clinton +19 confirms state as solid D
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
