Hillary Clinton swung the polls very quickly after the DNC.  In the span of 10 days, she went from trailing Donald Trump by a point to being up by seven.  Trump has been slowly gaining back some of the ground since.

In the last two weeks, Trump has been able to cut the lead from 7% to 5% on a small but consistent basis.   In fact the last 4 national polls all show Clinton’s lead at 5 or less.

Here is a trend of the polls:

Here are the last 10 polls:

Of course the election is not about national polls and popular votes.  It’s about the electoral college.  Please see previous posts or click below for updated  state by state forecast of the electoral outcome.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Methodology:

• Use national polls listed at Real Clear Politics
• Weigh the outcomes by the sample size of each poll
• Account for the different days spanned for the poll by allocating it out across the days.
• Example a poll of 1000 voters taken across 7/2-7/5 would have a weighting of 250 voters for each of those days
• For each day, take the previous weighted 7 days worth of poll data to compute a percentage for each candidate.  The rolling 7 days decreases the impact of large polls taken on a single day (large sample electronic polls)

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For a 3rd party candidate to qualify to be at the debate, he/she needs to get to at least 15% on average in the major national polls that are taken just prior to Labor Day.  How are they doing? Let’s look at the last 50 polls taken between June and August to see if there’s any trends.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein appears to be losing momentum.  She was polling at 4.3 in June, decreased to 3.6 in July, and down again to 3.4 in August.  Short of a miracle, there does not appear to be a way for her to qualify for the debates.

Gary Johnson, on the other hand, seems to be gaining momentum.  He polled  at 7.3 in June, improved to 7.6 in July, and 8.6 in August.  Although the momentum seems to be on his side, he is unlikely to qualify for the debates:

• He only has a a few weeks to qualify
• the highest he has been able to achieve in any single poll  is a 12
• As this article points out, the commission’s decision to include Stein in the polls takes away from anti-establishment votes he would have received. Even if Stein was not in the poll, and one assumes all of her votes go to Johnson, Johnson would only be at 12 in August.

Here is a trend of the polling:

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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Hillary Clinton’s odds increased slightly from 72.2% to 72.8% .  She now leads Donald Trump by an all time high of 50.6% (Trump is now at 22.3% down from 23.1%).

We’ll see if the momentum changes as Trump has hired a new campaign manager and began airing media on Friday.

Here is a full list of the odds:

Looking into the odds at www.predictit.org for the House and Senate, the odds for a split government actually decreased.

The Democrats have a slight edge to win the Senate: 51.6%  Democrats win vs. 26% Republicans win and a 22.4% chance the senate is 50/50.  The odds for the Democrats winning the senate edged higher from 49.5% the prior week.

The Republicans are very likely to maintain control of the House with an 83.2% chance.  That is slightly lower than the prior week’s 84.0%.

The odds of neither party winning the House, Senate, and White House decreased from 60.0% to 56.0%.  Even though the odds of Trump winning the WH, the Republicans winning the House, and the Republicans winning the Senate all decreased, the odds of the Republicans winning all three actually increased to 22.5% from 19.0% .  This may reflect the fact that people are beginning to believe the the Republicans winning the House and Senate is tied to  Trump winning the Presidency.  The odds for the Democrats winning all three increased slightly from 21.0% to 21.5%.

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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