Updated Electoral Forecast: After Holding Steady for a Week, Trump Resumes Closing the Gap on Clinton’s Significant Electoral Lead

After holding steady for about a week, Donald Trump has resumed closing the gap on Hillary Clinton in the electoral forecast.  Clinton’s lead remains significant.

The four polls impacting the forecast:

  • WI Poll Clinton +5 moves state from solid D to likely D
  • 2 VA Polls (Clinton +2 and Clinton +1) initially move state from solid D to likely D and then from likely D to lean D
  • NH poll moves state from likely D to solid D

The above polls moved the forecast from 328-210 to the current 325-213.  The 112 point lead is Clinton’s smallest since she led by 104 on August 12.

Here are the polls that did not move the forecast:

  • IA Poll Trump +5 confirms state as tossup
  • WV Poll Trump +18 confirms state as solid R
  • PA Poll Clinton +5 confirms state as likely D
  • AZ poll Trump +4 confirms state as lean R
  • NY Poll Clinton +18 confirms state as solid D
  • NC Poll Trump +2 confirms state as tossup

Here is the list of current tossups:

  • GA
  • IA
  • NC
  • NV

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

  • CO
  • FL
  • NH
  • OH
  • PA
  • VA
  • WI

The above are the states Trump needs to swing back in order to win.

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

electoral trend 9-4-16

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

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