Updated Electoral Forecast: Trump Gains in PA, OH, and MI but not Enough to Cut Clinton’s Electoral Lead

Donald Trump made up ground in several state polls over the last few days, but that was not enough to change the electoral forecast.  Here are the 5 polls since the last update:

  • 2 PA polls (Clinton +3 and Clinton +8) got Trump closer to Clinton, but not enough to swing the state away from likely D. All three previous polls were Clinton +9.
  • MI Poll Clinton +5 got Trump closer in that state and was enough to swing it from solid D to likely D.  The two previous polls were Clinton +11 and Clinton +7.
  • OH Poll was a tie. Combined with the previous two polls (Clinton +6 and Clinton +4) kept the state as lean D.  Another tie would swing the state to a tossup.
  • AZ was the only state poll to swing in Clinton’s direction.  Poll came in at Clinton +1.  The previous polls were  Trump +2 and Trump +7.  This was enough to swing the state from likely R to lean R.

The above polls kept the forecast at 328-210, as Trump’s electoral gain in Michigan was offset by Clinton’s gain in AZ.

Here is the list of current tossups:

  • GA
  • IA
  • NC
  • NV

Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:

  • CO
  • FL
  • NH
  • OH
  • PA
  • VA
  • WI

The above are the states Trump needs to swing back in order to win.

Here’s a trend of the forecast:

electoral trend 8-31-16

 

Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections

Click here for running list of forecast changes

Click here for results from last 5 elections

Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates

Views – 711