Hillary Clinton had a great run from an Electoral perspective between 7/13, when she had a 44 point lead to 8/23 where she grew her lead to 144. Donald Trump has finally reversed that trend thanks to polls from AZ, NC, and FL.
7 polls were released since the last update with 5 of them impacting the forecast, all in Trump’s favor:
- Two FL polls (Trump +2, Clinton +2) move state from likely D to lean D (prior poll Clinton +9)
- Two NC polls (tie and Clinton +2) move state from lean D to tossup
- AZ Poll Trump +7 moves state from tossup to likely R
The above polls moved the forecast from 341-197 to the current 328-210, a 26 point decrease in the lead from 144 to 118.
Other polls in the period:
- Initial poll for NM Clinton +9 confirms state as solid D
- MI Poll Clinton +7 confirms state as solid D
With the removal of AZ and addition of NC to the list of tossups, we are still at 4::
- GA
- IA
- NC
- NV
Many once thoughts to be tossup states currently have Clinton in front including:
- CO
- FL
- NH
- OH
- PA
- VA
- WI
The above are the states Trump needs to swing back in order to win.
Here’s a trend of the forecast:
Click here for a state by state forecast of the elections
Click here for running list of forecast changes
Click here for results from last 5 elections
Follow me @2016ElectOdds for updates
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